Nerves are now tense in the Middle East. The military confrontation between Iran and Israel is unclear, and if Israel responds to Iranian missile and drone attacks, what can Iran respond with?
What are Iran's military capabilities and what are the capabilities of its armed forces?
– There is a reason not to attack Iran. It is not that Iran's opponents fear Iran. “They realize that any war against Iran is a very dangerous war,” said Avshon Ostovar, a professor of national security issues at the Naval Postgraduate School. New York times.
It is one thing that Iran itself can do, and another thing that Iran's network of friendly militias can inflict military devastation on Israel.
That's why it's exciting
- The background to the confrontation between Israel and Iran is the Israeli attack on a consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus, where seven high-ranking Iranian officers were killed on April 1 of this year.
- Two weeks later, last Saturday, the counterattack came and 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles were sent over Israeli territory. The vast majority of It was dropped.
- This was the first time that Iran directly attacked Israel. Now the whole world waits in anticipation to see what happens next.
- Israel said it would respond to any attack with a counterattack. Will Iran send more drones and missiles, and if so what will Israel do next?
Missiles and drones
Iran has one of the largest arsenals of ballistic missiles and drones in the Middle East, according to a New York Times review. It includes cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles, in addition to ballistic missiles with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers. These missiles have the ability and range to hit any target in the Middle East, including Israel.
In recent years, Iran has amassed a large stock of drones that have a range of up to 2,500 kilometers and are capable of flying at low altitude to avoid radar, according to experts. Iran did not hide its military buildup, displaying an array of drones and missiles during military parades.
Old fighter planes and tanks
The Iranian army is considered one of the strongest armies in the region in terms of equipment, cohesion, experience, and quality of personnel, but it lags far behind the strength of the advanced armed forces of the United States, Israel, and European countries.
Iran's greatest weakness is its air power. Much of the country's combat aircraft date back to the days of the Shah, which ended in 1979. Many aircraft have been idled due to a lack of spare parts. Iran also owns some aircraft that it purchased from Russia in the 1990s, according to the New York Times.
Iranian tanks and armored vehicles are old, and the country has only a few large naval vessels. Two intelligence ships, Saviz and Behshed, deployed in the Red Sea, assisted in this Houthi militia US officials said that the United States had identified Israeli-owned ships for attack.
A large army and militias
The Iranian Armed Forces consist of 580,000 active personnel and about 200,000 reserve personnel, divided between the traditional army and the Revolutionary Guard, according to statistics. appreciation By the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Additionally, and at least as important, the Al-Quds Unit, an elite unit of the Revolutionary Guard, is responsible for arming, training, and supporting the militia network throughout the Middle East. According to the New York Times, this includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, militia groups in Syria and Iraq, and Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza.
Specifically, the friendly militias – which are not part of the Iranian armed forces, but are regional forces allied with them – are combat-ready, heavily armed, and ideologically loyal. They will come to Iran's rescue and play an important role.
-There is no invasion imminent
An Israeli attack on Iran would be a nightmare scenario, not only for Iran, but for the entire region and stability in the Middle East.
But Dag Henrik Tostad, senior lecturer in Middle Eastern studies at UiO, doesn't think that will happen.
We do not face an imminent Israeli invasion of Iran. But if there is a second phase of the confrontation, Iran will respond to any attack from Israel, but then with the help of its affiliated militias, especially Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, he said.
He confirms that the potential attack will not be carried out by ground forces. There are no borders between Iran and Israel and no Arab country in the region wants to be drawn into war by either side.
– It is important to know that Iran is not allied with Arab countries, with the exception of Syria. But he says that all other countries in the region hate Iran.
No Arab country, such as Jordan and Lebanon, will allow flights over its territory and closed its airspace on Sunday night.
– They will not allow drones or aircraft from Iran or Israel to pass.
– Huge quantities of missiles
But Iran is allied with the Axis of Resistance, which consists of combat-ready militias on the border with Israel, according to Tostad.
Hezbollah in particular poses a major threat.
There are huge quantities, perhaps hundreds of thousands of missiles, with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. He says they are the biggest factor in any potential Iranian attack.
This will strongly affect whether Israel will attack or not.
– A possible Hezbollah attack is the greatest deterrent for Israel since Tostad.
UiO researcher believes that the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus was a paradigm shift for Iran. With the killing of the seven military leaders, a new situation arose.
– Now Iran must follow up on the possible Israeli counterattack, especially if it occurs on Iranian territory.
It is believed that Israel will gain nothing from attacking Iran.
The attack on Iranian territory is a military attack in which Hezbollah is likely to participate. That's why I don't think Israel will attack, because the consequences would be very devastating.
– Very devastating
– In what way?
– Because the ability of Hezbollah, especially Hezbollah, to destroy and spread death and destruction in Israel is on a scale that Israel has never faced before, Tostad says.
– So it is not certain that Israel will respond?
– No, they do not have to do that when the result is war with Iran and the axis of resistance. It would be very devastating.
The attack would also be against the wishes of the United States in this case. They want to avoid escalating the situation at all costs.
The relationship between Iran, Israel, and the United States is roughly explained:
Iran
- They were once allies. Today, they have become competitors in the battle for influence and power in the region.
- Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the Islamic regime in Iran has had a conflicted relationship with Israel and the United States. Iran is considered a major power in the region, and has long had a controversial nuclear program. In addition, the Islamic regime has links with other Islamist groups in Yemen, Lebanon, Egypt, Syria and Gaza – which are often called the Axis of Resistance.
- Iranian air strikes against Israel occurred on April 14 after the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Israel did not claim responsibility, but the United States stated that the attack was Israeli.
Israel
- Israel considers Iran an enemy, and for many years Israeli governments have portrayed the Iranian nuclear program as a major threat to Israel's existence. Israel itself has nuclear weapons and is a close ally of the United States.
- In the wake of the Iranian attack, Israel announced that it would respond to the attack.
United States of America
- Iran refers to the United States as the Great Satan, while the United States describes Iran as the main sponsor of terrorism in the world. Meanwhile, the relationship between the two countries was stable until 2018. Under former President Donald Trump, the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement and reimposed sanctions on Iran. This is despite the fact that UN observers concluded that Iran had adhered to its part of the agreement.
- The United States said on Sunday, April 14, that it would support the defense of Israel, but would not participate in any type of attack against Iran.
Sources: United Nations, Rand Wilson Center
Iran vs. Israel
This is how the BBC assesses the balance of power between Israel and Iran:
- Iran is much larger than Israel geographically It has a population of nearly 90 million, nearly 10 times the population of Israel – but that does not mean a greater military force.
- Iran has invested heavily in missiles and drones. It has a huge arsenal of its own, but it has also supplied large quantities of weapons to the militias allied with it – the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- Iran lacks modern air defense systems and combat aircraft, but Russia is believed to be working with Iran to strengthen these areas in exchange for the military support provided by Iran in Russia's war with Ukraine. This largely applies to Shahid drones.
- On the other hand, Israel has a very advanced air defense. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Israel has at least 14 squadrons of jet aircraft – including F15, F16 and the highly advanced F-35 fighter jets, which Norway has also purchased.
- Israel also has experience With carrying out attacks deep into enemy territory.
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