The world of energy in 2030. A lower-energy Russia, a lower-appetite China, unstoppable electric cars, and the surge in solar and marine energy.

“We are facing a major geopolitical crisis that could send shockwaves through oil markets. Many oil producers are in the Middle East,” IEA Executive Director Vatip Birol began at the press conference to make the presentation. World Energy Outlook 2023.

Europe is still recovering from the energy shock caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and is already facing a new geopolitical crisis due to tensions in Israel and the Gaza Strip.

The Paris-based agency expects fossil fuel consumption to peak during the current decade. Interestingly, just two weeks ago, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasts for 2045 predicted a 16% increase in crude oil consumption over the next two decades, with a total required investment of $14 billion.

The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2030, renewable energies will account for 80% of new energy, that the number of electric cars will increase by about 10 times, and that China will reduce its energy consumption as a result of its economic slowdown, or that Russia will not do so. Able to regain its globally dominant position in the natural gas market.

1 – Tension in the Middle East. More than a year and a half after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, instability in the Middle East threatens to cause “greater disruption to energy prices and markets.” The IEA notes that this highlights the vulnerabilities of a fossil fuel-powered world, and highlights the energy security benefits of renewable energy sources. “The tense situation in the Middle East revives problems in oil markets a year after Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe. Monitoring oil and gas security remains essential for the energy transition,” according to the report, which indicates that oil sales from the Middle East to Asia will rise from 40 % today to 50% in 2050, pointing out that Asia is also the final destination for almost all additional liquefied natural gas supplies.

two – Electric car. The report highlights the unstoppable ambition for electric vehicles. Two years ago, for every 25 cars sold worldwide, one was electric. This year, one in five sold is electric. By 2030, nearly one in two will be electric. The IEA Executive Director stressed that if more governments invest in this transition, there is still room for further growth.

3 – Navy. This year, investment in offshore wind power plants will reach half of the expected investment in new coal and natural gas plants, “but this is changing rapidly,” Fatih Birol said. By 2030, investment in offshore wind will be three times higher than in coal/gas plants.

4 – Decreased fossil fuels. Currently, fossil fuels weigh 60% in the electricity production mix compared to 60% seven years ago, but by 2030 that weight will fall to 30% as “the very strong growth of solar, wind and other renewables pushes fossil fuels out.” From the world”. “Electricity production,” according to the head of the International Energy Agency, who left a warning: “This does not mean that we do not need more investment [em combustíveis fósseis]“We still need oil and gas.”

5- Natural gas. LNG production is expected to rise significantly in the coming years. By 2025, production will grow by 50% compared to current values. “This will have an impact on gas markets around the world, alleviating supply problems and putting pressure on prices,” Fatih Birol said.

6- China. China is losing weight economically and that is a good thing. With the country’s economic slowdown, its insatiable appetite for fossil fuels is also declining. In the past ten years, globally, China has been responsible for consuming two-thirds of oil, one-third of gas, and almost all coal, with economic growth reaching 6% per year, which has led to “strong growth in China.” “Energy consumption. But China is changing now. The economy is slowing down, rebalancing itself, and the economy does not need more steel or cement or more homes or transportation infrastructure. We believe that the slowdown of the Chinese economy will have a significant impact on demand for fossil fuels.” .

7 – Challenges. Renewable energy projects face “headwinds in some markets resulting from rising costs, bottlenecks in the supply chain, and high financing costs,” according to the agency, which highlights that oil, coal and gas consumption will rise slightly this decade, but the rates of decline will vary.

8- Lighting the road with solar energy. This year alone, 500 gigawatts of new renewable energy will be added, a new record. In solar energy alone, investment reaches one billion dollars daily. By 2030, the International Energy Agency expects 70 gigawatts of solar energy to be in operation annually, and that’s just in Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. “Solar energy alone cannot help the world meet climate goals, but more than any other clean technology, it can light the way.”

9- Russia is losing gas. The IEA concluded that Moscow was unlikely to regain the same share of the global gas market. “There are very limited opportunities for Russia to secure additional markets,” according to the document, which notes that the 30% share recorded in 2021 will halve in 2030, despite Gazprom recently announcing that pipeline sales to China will reach similar levels. For sales. To Western Europe before the invasion of Ukraine.

10- Fossil fuels will reach their peak by 2030. Consumption of coal, natural gas, and oil will reach a maximum by 2030. Since then, coal consumption will suffer a notable decline, but oil and gas will remain at near-peak levels for the next two decades. The International Energy Agency warns that fossil fuel use remains “too high” to comply with the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius. If governments do not act, the average global temperature could rise by 2.4 degrees this century. The agency believes that there is a risk of worsening climate impacts after a year expected to break the record for maximum temperature, which also calls into question the security of the energy system “which was built for a world with lower temperatures and fewer extreme events.” “Weather conditions.”