The war is in its decisive phase:

Because when a hack becomes a reality, the Russians are forced to take things as they come, among other things because panic and chaos could spread as the Ukrainian hack spreads, says Tormod Heyer, professor of military strategy and operations at the Staff College. , for the daily newspaper.

Here lies the opportunity now for Ukraine, which is to unbalance the Russians by imposing measures that they did not plan, he says.

There have been reports in recent days about the possibility of a breakthrough on the way, especially along the so-called Orekiv axis in the south. One Ukrainian general even says they hacked this, but to what extent and whether this is true at all is unknown.

Ketchup effect

The fighting around Bakhmut is likely to limit Russian forces to the southeast, where pressure to reach the Sea of ​​Azov is mounting.

– Then the Russian supply lines will be broken, and the freedom of action inherent in maneuver between the motherland and the Crimean Peninsula will be broken. If the Ukrainians make progress, Heyer says, it could trigger a “ketchup effect.”

He explains:

Ukraine could advance, and lighter, more mobile forces from the Ukrainian reserve could suddenly slip through the narrow wedge created by infantrymen, minesweepers, and artillery in the first three months of the offensive. Then heavy armored forces equipped with Western equipment could follow.

In other words: at first nothing comes out of the bottle, then the ketchup spills.

Heyer says this advance will be able to spread panic and chaos.

– No different from what happened in August and September last year when the Ukrainians retook large areas around Kharkiv and Kherson. But this assumes one thing: that the Russians must get out of the balance that they currently seem to enjoy. Because then they will have control, he says.

Can succeed in biting

If the Ukrainians fail to achieve such a situation on the front, there are many indications that the Russians will be able to hold out.

Nor is it Just A breakthrough will be crucial in the coming weeks, but the basic requirements for a breakthrough must be in place – Heyer believes Ukraine must have a sufficient number of soldiers with at least six months’ combat experience.

– This resource is depleted as losses continue. Poorly trained reserves who must replace veterans can often contribute to greater uncertainty because they do not have the experience and skill. The lack of control in the air and the lack of air defense and ammunition from the West also play a role. And not least: the ability to coordinate combat units larger than battalion and brigade size (from 1,000 to 5,000 men) where infantry, tanks, artillery, minesweepers and drones are linked together into one seamless, fully integrated combat system, says the professor. .

He adds that this competence takes many years to develop.

The big question

Director of the Military College’s Land Force Department, Lieutenant Colonel Bali Yedstepu, also highlights the achievement as crucial for the future.

– In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have made the most progress south of Orekhiv, where the village of Robotin was captured last week. Last week, Ukraine stormed Russia’s second defense belt at Verbov, while the Russians reinforced that section with troops from the strategic reserve, he told Dagbladet.

It is believed that this may indicate that Russia views the Ukrainian advance as decisive.

Since mid-June, Ukraine has focused more on wearing down Russian forces with artillery, and the big question now is whether the Russians are weak enough to give the Ukrainians a chance at a breakthrough, Yedstepo says.

What is important, according to the expert, to watch going forward is whether Ukrainian forces are able to consolidate their advance and begin to push back the Russian defense lines they have stormed, threatening the important center of Tokmak, which is only two and a half years away. Miles southwest of robot eyes.

– It depends a lot on who has the available reserves and the best enforcement power, says Ydstebø.

– Ukraine is going through a fateful moment. The coming weeks will show how much territory will be freed before the front lines freeze again, Heyer agrees.