The study shows that the consequences will be “irreversible” if the average temperature rises by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius

Given that the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement sometimes appears vulnerable, shouldn't we be resigned to seeing this limit exceeded for a few decades? “No,” the study scientists answered emphatically. They warned that a scenario of this kind could have “irreversible” consequences that could last for thousands of years.

If the average temperature rises by more than 1.5°C, “tipping points” will be reached, such as thawing permafrost and peat bogs, two huge carbon stores that, if they disappeared, would release huge amounts of gases that contribute to global warming. The effect, which in turn will cause the planet to warm.

The researchers warned that if the 1.5°C threshold is exceeded over a century, sea levels could also rise by another 40cm, posing a threat to island nations.

Karl Friedrich Schleussner, a researcher at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, based in Austria, explained, “Even if we were able to reduce temperatures, the world we live in would not return as if we had not exceeded the permissible limit.” Who managed the team of scientists.

According to the United Nations, climate commitments made by countries will result in global temperatures rising by about 3 degrees Celsius by 2100, compared to the pre-industrial era. Greenhouse gas emissions are approaching their peak and countries have not yet begun to cut them, although they will have to do so by almost half by 2030 if they want to stay within the 1.5°C limit.

But this goal will be only one step towards carbon neutrality by 2050, when natural carbon sinks and technology will absorb as many greenhouse gases as those emitted by human activity.