A new study published in the journal cancer A worrying rise in cancer cases and deaths among men is expected by 2050, particularly among those aged 65 and over. The research, conducted by scientists in Australia, analysed data from 30 types of cancer in 185 countries and territories in 2022 to forecast future scenarios.

According to Study expectationsThe global number of cancer cases among men is projected to rise from 10.3 million in 2022 to 19 million in 2050, an increase of 84%. During the same period, cancer deaths among men are projected to rise from 5.4 million to 10.5 million, an increase of 93%. The study also highlights that the greatest growth is expected to occur among men aged 65 years or older, with deaths in this age group increasing by 117%.

Disproportionate impact on low-income countries

The researchers point out that countries with low income and long life expectancy tend to experience greater increases in cancer deaths among men. “Between 2022 and 2050, the number of incidents and deaths is expected to increase by 2.5 times in Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean region. Europe, on the other hand, is expected to experience an increase of about half.”

Currently, men are more likely to die from cancer than women, due to factors such as increased tobacco and alcohol consumption, behaviors often linked to the development of different types of cancer. In addition, men are more exposed to carcinogens in the workplace and have less access to screening programs.

As in 2022, lung cancer is projected to remain the leading cause of cancer deaths among men in 2050. The cancers expected to see the largest increases include mesothelioma, in terms of new cases, and prostate cancer, in terms of deaths.

The study authors warn of the urgent need to improve access to health care and medical infrastructure, including training and expanding the adequate workforce. According to the study, expanding universal health coverage worldwide could significantly improve “essential oncology care options.” Low-income countries, which already face poor cancer outcomes, would benefit the most from these improvements.

A previous report by the American Cancer Society had already concluded that population growth and aging are determining factors in the growing global cancer burden. In 2022, the world's population was about eight billion, with projections that it will reach 9.7 billion by 2050. William Dahut, chief scientific officer of the American Cancer Society, told CNN International that the number of cancer cases could reach 35 million by 2050. In 2050, especially if tobacco use and obesity continue to rise, factors that are particularly worrisome in low-income countries.

Research also revealed that Australia has the highest cancer incidence rate, at 514.3 cases per 100,000 people. However, the country’s death rate is among the lowest, indicating that the Australian healthcare system is highly effective at detecting and treating cancer.

Joel Ree, Associate Professor and RACGP Chair of Specific Interests – Cancer and Palliative Care, points out that the effectiveness of cancer data recording systems and the influence of lifestyle factors such as obesity and alcohol consumption are factors that significantly increase incidence rates in Australia and other developed countries. However, the absence of national screening programmes for prostate cancer, for example, is a notable gap.

The study highlights the importance of improving healthcare infrastructure and quality of care through a coordinated approach and national and international collaboration. These actions are essential to improve current cancer outcomes among men and prepare health systems for the projected increase in cancer “burden” by 2050.