Signals from Mariupol may be positive for Ukraine:

Aid organizations are desperately trying to get civilians out of the war-torn port city of Mariupol in Ukraine.

The Red Cross makes another attempt to evacuate on Saturday, after they tried to send 50 buses to evacuate on Friday, but had to return to Zaporizhia because the promised ceasefire was not being observed.

Some believe that the port city is next to the fall. General and former chief of defense Ambassador Dyson isn’t sure.

– The more fragmented the city becomes, the easier it will be to defend the Ukrainian forces. This is due to the fact that in defensive battles, the defender will be able to use the rubble and remains of buildings as outposts and barriers, while the attacker will need to overcome these same obstacles, Diesen tells TV 2.

The power of a humanitarian disaster

Diesen believes that exactly this, the Ukrainians defend the city well, helps make the Russians reluctance to work on evacuating civilians.

“The greater the humanitarian catastrophe in Mariupol, the greater the likelihood that Ukraine will be forced to abandon the city,” he said.

At the same time, he believes, we are beginning to see hints that Russia is about to give up on land warfare.

In recent days, there have been reports that the Russians are in the process of withdrawing in northern Ukraine. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Withdrawal is slow.

“They suffered great losses in soldiers and materiel, so if we look at what it would take now for them to be able to take over Ukraine, it goes beyond what their situation is now,” he says.

hit politically

Disin believes that this also has a political effect – the Russians are more willing to negotiate, while the Ukrainians are less interested in this.

– It is clear that now the Ukrainians are seeing signs of stagnation, and then there will be an opportunity to start a guerrilla war in the occupied territories, he says.

There were a number of reports of Russian generals being killed in the war – more senior ranks than usual were killed in military operations.

It’s a sign that they should push the generals forward on the front line, a morale booster we hear fading out in a lot of places. Then there’s the question of whether Russia’s communications system is on the verge of collapse, so that senior officers will have to step up to give the order, he says.

The United States is winning strategically

Øystein Tunsjø is Professor in the Department of Defense Studies at the Norwegian Defense College.

And he believes that one of the interesting aspects of the war now is that the United States now appears to see China as a much greater threat than Russia.

In a press release about their new defense strategy, the Pentagon wrote that China is the number one priority for the time ahead. Tonsu says this shows the weakness of Russia, while Europe is strengthening.

In the previous US defense defense strategy, no distinction was made between Russia and China.

China is a much bigger superpower than Russia. The war gave the United States an opportunity to focus on them. He adds that there is a much greater chance that China can dominate Asia than Russia can dominate Europe.

Tunsjø also thinks the Chinese are now a little unsure of how to proceed.

– It was believed in advance that the West would crumble and weaken, but they stood together during the war and strengthened. He says the Russian military effort is unfortunate, and China understands it.

health challenges

On Friday, Putin’s spokesman was forced to come out and dismiss rumors that Putin has cancer. There have been a number of rumors about Putin’s health since the invasion began.

“I don’t think it’s anything more destructive than anything else it does,” says Dessen.

However, it is believed that there are other health rumors that could be more dangerous for Putin.

His mental health and perception of reality were particularly speculated. And apparently enough people in his inner circle think that’s enough, and that this has been out of control for a long time, he says.

Does this mean that someone can try to overthrow Putin?

“Like everyone else in the Palace Revolutions, it’s hard to say who threatens something like this, and whether they would make any attempt to overthrow Putin,” he said.