– Ukraine has broken the narrative that has begun to take hold, which says that Russia must win the war.
This is what Tor Bokvoll, a senior researcher at the Norwegian Defence Research Institute, told ABC Nyheter. He sees the Kursk attack as symbolically important and a sign that the Russians are not invincible.
– Some people had the impression that Russia had the initiative, and that Ukraine was bound to lose slowly but surely. With the Kursk operation, they gained a new argument. The idea that Ukraine would lose anyway has now been shattered. And I think that Ukraine considers this very important.
– It will make withdrawal easier.
Russian soldiers are pictured in the Kursk region. The photo was released by the Russian Defense Ministry on August 10, 2024. A month later, Russian forces were said to have launched a major offensive to retake lost territory. Photo: Russian Defense Ministry/Reuters
– How do you think Ukraine has succeeded so far in Kursk?
– Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the important military goal is to push the Russians out of Donbas. It is difficult to see that this has happened to a large extent or that the goal has been achieved. On the other hand, they have succeeded in strengthening their will to defend themselves and fighting morale, in addition to the political gain of Russia's entry. It is causing unrest and sowing a lot of doubt on the Russian side.
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Read all about the war in Ukraine here.
The chief scientist is unsure how far Ukraine wants to go, how long they want to stay in Kursk, and whether they have a plan for withdrawal.
– I think Ukraine understands how to occupy it. They chose not to go deep, but to secure the flanks. It also makes it easier to retreat. Going deeper into Russia would have been very costly. That's why they prefer to see it later. It's hard to say now whether the attack was worth carrying out beyond the political gains it brought.
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It indicates little Russian reserves.
– Why hasn't Russia done more to stop the Ukrainian advance?
– If Russia had had significant forces available when the invasion of Kursk began, its reaction would probably have been different. What we saw from the Russian side was nothing special. “Instead of deploying trained reserve forces, they removed everything available, both the most professional forces from the Kharkiv region, and the less professional forces from several places along the front line,” Bukvol answers.
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Ukrainian forces have faced relatively little resistance during the month-long operation, but have nevertheless lost some military equipment. In recent days, there have been reports of Russian counterattacks and the recapture of occupied territory.
Watch the video: More than 100 Russians were arrested here.
Seizing weapons from Russian forces
– How is the balance of power in terms of access to weapons and ammunition?
“Ukraine probably still has less weapons than the Russians, but it may be catching up, especially when it comes to ammunition. If the Russians lose more than they can produce, it could set them back somewhat in the long run. Ukraine is militarily inferior to Russia, but it can still hold out pretty well. It all depends on your willingness to defend yourself and armed assistance from outside,” says Bukvoll, before continuing:
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– A significant addition to the Ukrainian arms arsenal is what they managed to take from Russia. This is very important for the Ukrainian army. The Russians still use a lot of Soviet-era weapons and equipment, which the Ukrainians are very used to. Equipment that may be damaged can also be repaired. Together, this contributes to strengthening the Ukrainian arsenal.
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I think Ukraine will sell itself very expensively.
In Donetsk, Bukvol sees signs that the Russians may be in the process of taking control of several strategically important cities, but he believes the Ukrainians will sell themselves dearly here as well.
– The situation has been a bit calmer in recent days, and the advance has stopped a bit. It is possible that the Russians are preparing for a major operation to attack Prokhovsk. However, it is not certain whether they will succeed. In any case, it will probably take some time. “We see that Ukraine has stopped the train line to the city, probably as a result of Prokhovsk being within range of Russian artillery,” explains Tor Bukvoll.
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He believes that Vladimir Putin is in a hurry to conquer the whole of Donetsk, one of the declared goals of the “special military operation.” If Russian forces manage to take Prokhorovsk and the rest of Donbas, it will be a long-awaited victory for Putin.
Putin is facing a slightly worse time than previously thought.
Ukrainian soldiers of the 43rd Artillery Brigade fire a 2S7 Pion self-propelled artillery mount at Russian positions in an undisclosed area in the Pokrovsk district of the eastern Donetsk region, August 8, 2024. Photo: Roman Belibi/AFP/NTB
– Until the Kursk invasion, Putin was probably pretty sure that it was going his way. Now I think he's a little bit insecure, even if he gives the impression that he doesn't care much about it. According to new intelligence, there will be fewer weapons available starting next year. If Putin knows that, he must think he's having a slightly worse time than he thought before, explains Bukvoll.
– When will Putin feel satisfied and perhaps stop the war?
– Now it's about taking Donbas and holding what Russia has already taken. Then that can be sold as a kind of victory at home. It's also possible that Putin will try to broker a truce. That can be used to stop hostilities and rebuild militarily. If the Russians fail to take Donbas completely, it will be hard to sell that as a victory.
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– So Putin will not emerge victorious.
-Does it really matter when you have all the power?
– In principle, he is sovereign, like all dictators, where no one speaks against you. At the same time, we have no idea what is happening at the bottom of the Russian hierarchy. But Putin will not look victorious if he does not take over Donbass. Then he will appear weak.
– Is it possible to imagine a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia?
– Putin has not changed his view that Ukraine’s independence should disappear. Putin recently said that Russia is ready to conclude a peace based on the Istanbul Protocol starting in 2022. But this is not a fully negotiated agreement, and it does not deal with the occupied territories. But Putin’s gesture is a signal that Russia may consider a pause, perhaps to secure the areas it has already occupied.
– I think everyone should be concerned about that.
Bokvol believes it is unlikely that Russia will be able to extend its tentacles into all of Ukraine, and even if the Russians could do so, the senior researcher questions whether Putin would want to start a new war.
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– I don't think, for example, that Poland or the Baltic states will be the next to leave if Russia takes over all of Ukraine. And the Russians know that too, he says and explains:
– With the defense that the Russians have now, it is not even certain that they will be able to take the rest of Donbas. Then Poland becomes very large in comparison. But the level of conflict between Russia and the West and many NATO countries will be enormous. The risk of starting something by accident is infinitely greater. I think everyone should be concerned about that.
Pokful believes that a potential war could also start unconsciously:
– If one side, for example a NATO country, does something or other that they think is inside, but Russia responds with military force, and NATO responds with greater force than Russia imagined, then you have to walk. War can happen as a result of unintended escalation, not because one of the partners starts the war deliberately or wants it.
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