– I don't think Putin is particularly satisfied with the way the Defense Minister and the Armed Forces handled the war, Tormod Heyer, professor of military strategy and operations at the Defense University, tells ABC Nyheter.
A Kremlin-controlled newspaper reports that suspects, defendants or defendants detained in Russia are now being recruited for the war against Ukraine. Kommersant. This is an extension of the amnesty granted upon conscription into the military forces. Until now, the system included only convicted prisoners.
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Professor Tormod Heyer tells ABC Nyheter that Russia is extending the amnesty to maintain military pressure along the front line. Without soldiers on the front line, Russia will gradually lose momentum in the war, which is an advantage to Ukraine's growing stability and Western military support. That's why it's important for Putin to keep up the pressure.
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– Over time, this type of war of attrition will favor Russia, which could consume a population more than three and a half times the size of Ukraine's population.
Russia's extension of the amnesty may indicate that Putin is desperate, believes professor of military strategy and operations Tormod Heyer. Photograph: Mikhail Sinitsyn/Sputnik, Kremlin pool photo via AP
– Expression of lack of support
After 700,000 fighters fled the country in 2022, the Kremlin must move cautiously so as not to destabilize its society politically and socially. “Prisoner conscription” is perhaps Putin's least risky move. At the same time, it tells us a lot, says the professor.
Heyer says that the recruitment of suspects and defendants into Russian forces is an expression of the population's lack of support for the war.
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Hence, recruiting detainees could clarify the image of the Russian military apparatus.
Professor at the Norwegian Armed Forces College, Tormod Heyer, described this crisis as the biggest crisis NATO has faced since the end of the Cold War. Photo: Ole Berg Rusten/NTB
– Russia has lost all fully mechanized assault combat battalions that served as the army's hold. Thus, Russia no longer has any well-trained combat systems with penetrating capabilities; Professional forces that can make decisions on the Ukrainian battlefield. The draft thus tells us that Russia struggles with a hollow, unbalanced, and fragmented military apparatus that wages war primarily on civilians without military experience.
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Recruitment offers come almost immediately after the start of a criminal case. If the Commission agrees to conclude a contract with the person under investigation, the prosecution is suspended and ends completely if the person receives a state award, completes the “Special Military Operation in Ukraine” or loses his life and health.
Conscription applies to prisoners between the ages of 18 and 65 years. People involved in criminal cases related to terrorism, treason, espionage or pedophilia are exempt from conscription, Kommersant wrote.
Heyer believes that recruiting in this way also hurts the Russian economy given the country's lack of manpower.
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