Fighting in the war in Ukraine is at its worst in the Donbass region, in the east of the country.
Fighting is continuing without Russia making much progress, according to intelligence from Ukraine and Britain.
Sunday British intelligence reports The Russians seem to be suffering heavy losses: Russian forces have lost momentum and are “significantly behind schedule”.
Despite initially little progress, Russia has been unable to make tangible progress in the past month, and at the same time the ongoing wear and tear is significant, says an analysis from the British Ministry of Defense.
A few weeks ago, Russia announced an offensive in the east, but it seems that it did not take off, says Lieutenant-Colonel Pal Yedistibo.
Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø is Head of Land at the Military School and an expert on the war between Russia and Ukraine Photo: Ingvild Gjerdsjø/TV 2
Russia has not made much progress, only small gains and big losses. They did not succeed in demolishing the Ukrainian forces. Ukraine also had losses, but they managed to continue. He says their reserves are intact.
The attack on Russia is losing its power. You also risk the initiative being passed on to the Ukrainians, continues Yedistibo, head of the geo-energy department at the Military School.
The next thirty days
According to British intelligence, Russia may have lost a third of the ground forces sent to the country in February.
In addition, they have a significant shortage of equipment, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance drones, according to the British.
Under current conditions, Russia is unlikely to significantly ramp up its lead in the next 30 days, according to the analysis.
Yedistibo says the Russians should move troops from Kyiv to Donbass when they launched what Russia called the attack a few weeks ago.
– They did not build the type of joint combat units needed to carry out the offensive, but the Ukrainians were better at managing a mobile and active defense, as well as maintaining the old trenches from 2015, explains Ydstebø and continues:
In this way they prevented the Russians from making much progress. They themselves managed to launch counterattacks in Kharkiv, and now they are reporting their offensive against Izyum, a large Russian gathering of forces, he says.
turning point?
said the general from Ukraine Sky News Saturday that he believed they could win the war before the year was over. He also said he believed they could reach a breakthrough in August.
It is hard to guess what might happen next in the war, says Yestepebo.
War is highly unpredictable, and the only certainty is uncertainty, he says.
Destruction: A woman from TV No. 2 was injured during the attack on Ukraine, and this week her home was completely destroyed during an attack. Photo: Kjetil Iden / TV 2
It shows that war plays on unpredictable factors in itself.
What is certain, however, is that what is happening on the battlefield now is influenced by what lies behind it.
He said that very severe sanctions were imposed on Russia, and this began to appear on the battlefield.
Russia is subject to a sanctions regime that works more and more over time, Ukraine has the entire Western economy and war industry behind it, and will operate more and more over time, says Ydstebø.
– This may be a new turning point. There are battles for the strategic initiative in Donbass now, but when they are defined in a way that Ukraine can accept, it could take a long time, he continues.
– At the best speed bumps
Finland confirms Sunday They are applying for NATO membership, and Sweden is expected to do the same next week.
Russia believes it is wrong for the neighboring country to become part of the defense alliance and has warned of “political reactions”.
Idestibo does not believe that the Russians will impose military sanctions, because they have little ability to do so, since most of the resources are constrained in the war in Ukraine.
– But other things are likely to come, like cyber attacks. An example is they Finland cuts off electricity. I don’t think they would pose any existential threats, but at best some bumps in the road, says the presenter.
It could get worse: The chair of parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, In-Marie Eriksen, believes the war in Ukraine could get worse, with more civilian casualties. Photo: Stian Lysberg Solum / NTB
can go wrong
A former foreign minister for eight years and now chair of the Norwegian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, In Merritt Soered, believes there are two things that could happen in the future.
– The first is that it could be much worse, as the brutality could increase. This means that the Russians are running out of some of their precision weapons. This means that they are using older weapons systems with much lower accuracy that destroy more, and this can lead to more civilian casualties, says Sored and continues:
– The second is that we must be prepared for it to be long-lasting. Now we are roughly back to where the war began, when it escalated 81 days ago. The Russians have been waging war there for eight years already after the annexation of Crimea.
Ukraine’s advantage is that it has gained a lot of experience waging a war of the kind that the Russians have imposed on them for eight years, at the same time that this long-term perspective presents a major challenge to the Ukrainians, he says. Sured.
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