– Looks like they were taken to sleep – VG

It is possible that we overestimated the intimacy, says the Chinese expert Torbjorn Verovic on the relationship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. What the leader of China knew in advance is still a mystery.

On Thursday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will be on the field again. Now China urges “all sides to calm down.” And do more to prevent escalation in Ukraine.”

Wang says he hopes the war will stop as soon as possible.

The Chinese foreign minister, in a statement issued earlier that week, described the relationship with Russia as follows:

The friendship between China and Russia still rocky.

Then Wang expressed that China, unlike the West, does not intend to push Russia into the cold. Strong sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia could give China more leverage over the country.

But how close China and Russia – and leaders Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin – really are, has become an open question.

– Too mysterious

Two weeks before the invasion of Ukraine, Western countries advised their citizens to leave the country.

The Chinese Embassy in Kyiv made the same recommendation for two days after That Russia had invaded the country.

– It seems as if China has grown because of the invasion. The Chinese Embassy in Kyiv seemed totally unprepared, Chinese author and expert Torbjorn Verovic tells VG.

At that time, there were about 6000 Chinese citizens in Ukraine.

– Many of them are stuck in the country and not allowed to leave. Færøvik says many of them did not get a seat on the plane.

The big mystery: How much did he know what Putin was up to?

– This puzzle becomes a kind of subject of history books. On the surface, it may seem that the relationship is intimate. They pat each other’s shoulders and roast like comrades. But how much do you know what will happen? In general, it is very ambiguous, says the Chinese expert.

– Theme for history books

The fact that China apparently knows so little about Putin’s plans is all the more surprising given the close personal relationship between Putin and Xi, Torbjørn Færøvik points out:

It’s conceivable that we sitting outside overestimated the intimacy of cooperation, he says.

He thinks it should have been clear to China, too, what would happen, as did the rest of the international community:

Russian war preparations were ambiguous. Verovic thinks it’s very strange that China has not kept up with this chapter.

He explains how hundreds of Chinese employees of the embassy in Moscow – and Chinese diplomats in Western countries – are following what they managed to capture in Russia, reports and reactions of the Western media.

Several possible explanations

In early February, Party General Secretary Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin met on the occasion of the Beijing Olympics. The two heads of state agreed on a lot: most of all China and Russia should have “Unlimited Cooperation”.

No topic is blocked anymore.

Putin promised that Russia stands behind the “one China” policy. China responded that it agreed with skepticism about what it described as an extension of the NATO alliance – the crisis in Ukraine was still looming, and the invasion was a few weeks away.

But exactly what Putin told Xi about the invasion plans, no one knows:

– He may have failed to inform Xi of the plan. When they met on February 4, they must have discussed many issues, including Ukraine. But he may not have told us of a clear plan, says Torbjorn Verovic.

The expert believes that it is also possible that Xi thought Putin was merely rattling with swords. It looked as if Putin was just trying to intimidate Ukraine into obedience.

Or: China may have thought Russia would launch only a limited, short-lived offensive. And that Russia would achieve a quick victory, he says and summarizes:

– Verovik says the consistent impression is that China was not prepared for what happened next – thus referring to what became a full-scale war in Ukraine:

Difficulty dividing

For China, old foreign policy principles make dealing with the Russian invasion complicated for them.

– This is clearly a very difficult division. On the one hand, China has in all years advocated the principles of peaceful coexistence with other countries: Verovic explains that one of these principles is respect for the territorial integrity of other countries.

This means not challenging other countries’ borders.

China itself uses this principle to defend its sovereignty over areas like Taiwan – and to demand that other countries not interfere in such issues.

But on the issue of Ukraine, the Beijing authorities said that there is a “sort of prehistoric”.

– Observed all over the world. Could these principles be up for sale? Færøvik says.

At the same time, China is concerned that the issue of Russia and Ukraine is completely different from the issue of China and Taiwan. According to China, the two cannot be compared, because Ukraine is an independent country – recognized by the international community.

– China will continue to adhere to this. On the other hand, Taiwan sees China as part of China, a province that broke away and lives its own life. Verovic explains that this means that Xi and his colleagues see it, and that they can do whatever they want: attack or not, but it’s an internal Chinese issue that no one else has to do with.