By Bond Robertson 
Sources close to the Putin administration told the independent Russian online newspaper Meduza that the latest arrest warrant against the president has caused a headache in his inner circle.
The Putin apparatus should present him as a counterweight to the West, a “protector against colonialism in Latin America and Africa,” and one of the most important heads of state in a multipolar world.
According to Meduza, the plan is heading towards the presidential elections in 2024.
Despite the invasion, Putin has made a number of official visits since February 24, 2022, including to Iran, Armenia and a number of Central Asian countries.
A new cold war
Hype
According to the sources they interviewed, trips abroad are very important for propaganda at home in Russia.
The reports from the trips in the state-controlled media were meant to show the population that Putin does, after all, have more friends than enemies, and that they are still an important major power in the world.
The sources told the newspaper that to complete these plans, Putin would have to go abroad. Easier said than done when you have an international arrest warrant against you.
Theoretically, Putin could be caught by the 123 countries that signed the Rome Statute, the treaty that lays the foundation for the work of the International Criminal Court.
Emperor and his client
A trip to South Africa
A number of major countries did not sign the agreement. Neither China nor Russia nor the United States joined it.
But in August, Putin was invited to the BRICS summit in South Africa. The summit is held annually and consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
This year’s host country, South Africa, is among the 123 signatories to these laws, who have thus committed themselves to comply with Vladimir Putin’s arrest warrant.
Now he writes that the country’s authorities found themselves in a quandary Medusa.
– We need to examine our legislation, and possibly have discussions in our cabinet, as well as with our colleagues in Russia, said South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor, according to Medusa.
– There is no indication that the ANC government in South Africa will follow through on the arrest warrant, says Marian Milstein, a South Africa expert and senior researcher at Oslo Mitt.
neutral
She links this to previous statements by the country’s foreign minister, Naledi Pandor. The country refrained from taking a position on the war in Ukraine, and also maintained its post-invasion relations with Russia.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Pretoria in January, among other things, to criticism both in South Africa and internationally.
Since the end of apartheid, the country has been ruled by the African National Congress (ANC), which historically had close ties to the Soviet Union.
The country has also chosen a neutral line in its relations with Russia, China and the West.
The debate about the relationship with Russia is now taking place in the critical media and civil society. South African expert Milstein says it is conceivable that a number of forces will put pressure on the ANC government to comply with its obligations.
– Huge win
Jorn Holm Hansen, a Russia expert and senior researcher at OsloMet-NIBR, believes it would be a huge victory for Russia if Putin could travel to South Africa without being arrested.
– It would be very good PR for Putin if he could travel around the world to the countries that signed the Rome Treaty. Then it shows that the entire arrest warrant is hollow, paper stuff that is not complied with by Russia’s good friends, important countries in the global south, says Holm Hansen.
At the same time, the opposite scenario may produce the opposite result.
– On the other hand, if he could not travel to South Africa, the publicity that he has friends all over the world would seem less credible, he says.
feather in the hat
He does not want to speculate too much about whether South Africa will arrest Putin. At the same time, he maintains, it is also a matter of whether Russia will seize the opportunity.
– Can Putin think of meeting the challenge forcefully, almost threatening to give them this kind of guarantee?
– I don’t think threats help here. They are fully aware that they are a feather in Putin’s cap. He adds that they also have an interest in cooperating with Russia themselves.
– How can you live with yourself?
Not the first time
This is not the first time South Africa has faced a challenge over its obligations to the ICC.
At the BRICS summit in 2015, then-Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was arrested upon entering South Africa due to an International Criminal Court warrant.
– At that time, a number of civil organizations mobilized and demanded that the government mobilize and arrest him. She says this did not happen.
The organizations took the matter to court, which, after he left the country unopposed, concluded that South African authorities had broken the law by not arresting him.
Thus, al-Bashir was allowed to leave the country the day after his arrival.
Until March 22, the Russian authorities had not decided whether to participate in the summit.
The allies signed
An arrest warrant can also cause problems in other countries. Tajikistan, a poor republic in Central Asia formerly associated with the Soviet Union, signed and ratified this very agreement.
The country is highly dependent on Russia economically, and Putin considers it a political ally. It was here that Putin made his first state visit after launching the invasion of Ukraine.
Now, in theory, he could expect to be caught if he returned.
Avisa writes that the Russian authorities are now unsure how to secure themselves against his arrest during any official visits.
Jorn Holm Hansen thinks it is doubtful that they would dare arrest Putin.
– I think this is unlikely. They are very dependent on and attached to Russia. They are also a small and poor country. He says South Africa is a country with more self-confidence internationally.