He added: “Ukraine must take the initiative from the Russians, but delays in providing Western aid will delay the efforts of the defense forces.”
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This is one of the conclusions in the latest update of Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Tankismiya believes it would be unwise for Ukraine to relinquish the initiative along the front line for too long, but instead launch a counterattack in order to throw the Russians off balance and reclaim the occupied territories.
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Superiority of Russian ammunition
Russian President Vladimir Putin is the most likely candidate to win the Russian presidential elections scheduled for mid-next March, after most of his rivals were imprisoned, died, or refused to run in the elections. Photo: Sputnik/Reuters
In recent weeks and months, Russia has captured a lot of momentum in the war against neighboring Ukraine. In several forward sections, Vladimir Putin issued orders to mobilize large Russian forces to penetrate the Ukrainian defenses. This has been partially successful, but the Ukrainians stubbornly resist massive attacks day and night, rebuffing the advancing Russians.
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In addition to the numerical superiority in the number of soldiers, the Russians also have much greater access to artillery ammunition thanks to large shipments from North Korea, as well as the Russian arms industry advancing at full speed. In addition, Iran contributes thousands of attack drones. China and India import huge amounts of Russian oil, thus fueling Putin's brutal war machine.
“Russia forces Ukraine”
Despite this military imbalance, the Institute for the Study of War is now warning Ukraine against engaging in a defensive strategy to keep the Russians at bay. On the contrary, the think tank believes it may now be wise and tactically necessary to challenge the Russians and undertake offensive maneuvers that could poke holes in the Russian war machine.
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Russia will be able to determine the location, time, scope, and requirements of fighting in Ukraine as long as it maintains the initiative in the complex theater of war. This allows Russia to force Ukraine to use materiel and manpower in reactive defensive operations, while depriving Ukraine of the ability to amass the materiel needed for future counteroffensive operations.
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This confirms the urgent need to support Western weapons and ammunition. However, the Global War Institute warns Ukraine not to retreat, but rather to show offensive muscle and regain momentum, knowing that Western reinforcements are on the way.
– Our mission is to destroy as much as possible
The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk, confirmed on March 6 that Ukraine will do so, and will try to seize the initiative and carry out counter-offensive actions during 2024.
– Our task is to stabilize the front line, destroying as much as we can, as we do, and regrouping as much as possible in order to withdraw the units that need to be replaced and return them to the training areas to create and carry an assault group. of counterattacks this year. The team told Ukrainian Radio: “We succeeded in this, and the situation is stabilizing.” Sobilny.
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– Sent to the front without training
Ukrainian soldiers of the 56th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, of the occupied and now bombed city of Mariupol, prepare to fire missiles from a pickup truck at Russian positions on the front line, near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Photo: Ephrem Lukatsky/AP
The general describes the situation on the battlefield as “difficult, but under control.” Based on the number of Russian soldiers killed and captured, he believes there is ample reason to believe that the Russians are sending newly mobilized soldiers to the front without training, and thus they are dying in large numbers.
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He believes the Russians' strategy is to occupy as much Ukrainian territory as possible before the Russian presidential elections in March.
– Everything that is possible and impossible is thrown into the attack. Newly mobilized soldiers are sent to the front without training. Pavlyuk says they only receive a short training session before being sent into battle, just to seize the initiative.
– The enemy's losses are heavy
According to the Institute for the Study of War, delays in critical arms and munitions support from Western allies will force Ukraine to make difficult decisions and find a balance between mobilizing military resources, planning and implementing future counterattacks, in parallel with ongoing Ukrainian defensive operations.
– There are very difficult matches every day, but our men are persistent. Enemy losses are huge. I believe that we will stabilize the situation in the near future, and we are doing our best to prepare our forces to enter into more active operations and take the initiative, as Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk emphasized.
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