Is the world really ready for a second round with Trump? – NRK Urix – Foreign news and documentaries

It's starting to spread in the United States. In less than three weeks, the country will have a new president.

What is striking about the campaign so far is how little movement there has been in voter groups, at least after Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee.

Trump assassination attempt, despite good Harris debate and contested vice presidential candidates; The two candidates appear to be evenly matched, and the election will, by all accounts, be decided by nearly a million American voters in swing states.

These voters not only decide who will rule their country, but they also influence the future fate of the world.

Unpredictable

Bigger changes will come if Donald Trump wins the election, but let's not assume that everything will be the same as before with Kamala Harris in the White House.

More on its foreign policy later.

Trump has learned from the last time he was in power. And so do the people around him.

These changes will occur if Republicans also gain power in the Senate and House of Representatives, the two chambers that make up Congress in the United States..

First, it will bring unpredictability to a system that lives on long lines of decision-making and trust. Trump does not like international organizations and agreements.

He prefers agreements with two parties, especially if he is under the impression that the United States or himself will get the best results from the agreement.

It is Europe and Ukraine that will feel the most if Trump wins.

Arms support for Ukraine is unpopular with parts of his electorate, and he has made clear he wants to reach an agreement quickly.

According to the latest book, Trump has Journalist Bob Woodward has had several conversations with Vladimir Putin After stepping down from the position of president.

He will be able to push forward a negotiated solution whereby Ukraine would give up areas occupied by Russia, while the rest of Ukraine would remain neutral. This will leave the rest of the country vulnerable in the coming years.

This will not only affect Ukraine. It will also affect the collective deterrence that the vast majority of European countries rely on to stand against Russia in the future.

Faith in NATO's success will be weakened at best, and perhaps completely destroyed, with Trump coming to power.

We also have to assume that the current rally around support for Ukraine in Europe will explode very quickly.

Therefore, one should be careful in assuming that Norway and the United States have an equally good relationship regardless of who rules.

It is true that our relationship with the United States is strong and standing on its feet. The last time Trump took office, military cooperation was strengthened, not weakened.

Norway plays an important role, for example, in controlling and monitoring Russian strategic submarines.

This is valuable, but it will not be much consolation if the rest of European and American security cooperation collapses or is permanently weakened.

NATO support

Kamala Harris grew up in California, the daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India. She has no Cold War political experience like Joe Biden.

She is not naturally drawn to Europe, but unlike Trump, she sees the value of alliances and has made it very clear that she will continue to support Ukraine.

It also distinguished itself by its strong support for NATO. I believe that many heads of states west of the Moscow River will breathe a sigh of relief if she wins the elections.

A Trump victory would also reinforce the right-wing populist wave already affecting Europe.

It introduces a new kind of unpredictability to the system that kept Europe safe and free of major continental wars until recent years, not forgetting the Yugoslav wars.

It will also further weaken democratic movements around the world and the legal system at the international level. Why cooperate in complex international organizations when you can get what you want elsewhere?

This is how many major countries might tend to think, and the truth is that this great power game does not suit an open economy like Norway's at all.

What will happen in the Middle East is perhaps the most difficult to imagine.

Perhaps this is where Harris will differ most from his predecessor, Joe Biden, who has been at odds with Israel over the past year.

I don't like constant war

Harris has made clear that the Palestinians deserve a state, finds it difficult to describe Benjamin Netanyahu as an ally, and knows that there are forces in her party that want her to go further.

Trump has clearly sided with the Israeli right, and is said to have mended the difficult relationship with Netanyahu.

On the other hand, he hates constant war and instability, and it is now difficult to see what long-term solutions the Israelis are offering.

When you rule the most powerful country in the world, you want to be heard, especially as a newly elected president.

More complicated

Harris and Trump do not clearly differ on China policy.

There will be a different use of language with Trump and more noise, but there is broad agreement in American policy to try to limit China's power and influence.

China may prefer to deal with the more traditional Harris, but we have to assume that the two world giants will be facing off over the next four years as well.

The world is more complex than it used to be.

The United States no longer always has the last word, as it did in the decades after the fall of the Soviet Union. But if you're wondering whether there's any reason to care who wins the US election, the answer is yes.

American voters decide the direction their country will take, but they also powerfully influence the kind of world we will all live in.