Experts believe that Putin’s meeting with Wagner’s boss could lead to more political unrest

Just five days after the Wagner Group rebelled against the Russian authorities, Wagner’s chief met with the president. Experts believe it may have weakened Putin’s authority.

– says the senior researcher of the Norwegian Defense Research Institute, Tor Bokvall, that this meeting first of all indicates that Putin is not as authoritarian as he and many others believed.

The meeting he referred to was between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin on June 29, just five days after Prigozhin and his mercenaries rebelled against the Russian authorities.

The president was said to have invited 35 people, including several military leaders, to the three-hour meeting, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

– It is very special that Prigozhin was not punished, and he even received the president only days after the end of the attack, – says Bukfull.

Poor relationship with the elite

Pokvall believes that the meeting may have weakened Putin’s relationship with the Russian elite.

Someone whom Putin himself has accused of carrying out a coup, who escapes with a few scrapes, says Buckfull, is not the strength he would expect an authoritarian leader to display.

If the Russian elite lose faith in Putin as leader, there could be dire political consequences.

That could mean more political instability, says Buckfull, and that it will be more difficult for Russia to win the war in Ukraine.

Lieutenant Colonel Gere Hagen Carlsen also believes that the meeting with Chief Wagner may weaken the confidence of the Russian elite in Putin.

– This is Russia, there is a lot that we do not know, and a lot that looks like something other than what it is, he says.

He still thinks the meeting is only a small part of Putin’s game.

The Danish scholar Flemming Spledspoel described the meeting as remarkable.

– It’s a big admission. Most likely, Russia will not succeed without Wagner Twitter.

I think Putin will go after Prigozhin later

– I find it a little hard to see that Putin, who was almost omnipotent, would live with the coup attempt. I think they will eventually go after Prigozhin, but that would just be speculation, says Carlsen.

When the Wagner Group pulled out, it was after making an agreement with Russia regarding the amnesia of Prigozhin and the other members of the group.

So Putin had previously promised not to punish them for the rebellion. However, Carlsen believes that this does not prevent the Russian authorities from punishing Prigozhin if they wish.

They can always find something else to punish them for. He’s a criminal, Carlsen says, so they’d have enough to take on him if they wanted to.

According to Carlsen, the Wagner Rebellion had several consequences for the Russian military: they lost the extra capacity they had in the Wagner Group, and now had to spend more resources on security forces inside Russia that would otherwise have been ahead.

He says Putin is therefore in a position to de-escalate the situation for the time being.

I don’t think Putin can punish Prigozhin

On the other hand, Pokvol believes that Putin would have punished Prigozhin if he had been able to.

– Now that he did not do that, this indicates that he is unable to punish him in the way he wants. We do not know why this is, but one possible explanation is that important parts of the Russian state apparatus would not carry out this order if it came. But this is just speculation.

Bukkvoll doesn’t think the meeting with Prigozhin is any indication that Russia is dependent on the Wagner Group.

– They make a useful additional ability, but if they were now completely removed from the war, I don’t think it would have any decisive effect. Because the number of Wagner soldiers did not make up a large part of Russia’s overall war effort, Buckfull says.