By Bond Robertson 
It is becoming increasingly likely that the El Niño weather phenomenon, which leads to a rise in the global average temperature, will occur this year.
It now surpasses the World Meteorological Organization (World Meteorological Organization) Stuck on the last update. They estimate that there is a 60 percent chance of an El Niño during July, and an 80 percent chance of an El Niño during September.
It may not be easy to understand: there have been eight years of record-breaking global temperatures despite of La Niña cooling effect, the opposite phenomenon, in the past three years.
– Should an El Niño event occur, it would likely lead to a new increase in global warming, and the chance of the increases would be to shatter temperature records, says WMO President Petteri Taalas.
Sound the alarm about a record summer
Set temperature record
The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimate comes after a number of countries’ weather and climate organizations recently pointed out the same.
As the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) writes, it is also unclear how strong El Niño will be this time.
The previous tour in 2018-2019 was considered relatively weak, while the one that hit the world between 2014-2016 was exceptionally strong and had serious consequences.
according to World Health Organization (WHO) 60 million people were affected by this, which also set a global temperature record in 2016.
The effects of the new El Niño are likely to be most pronounced in 2024.
The effects of both El Niño and La Niña spread from the Pacific Ocean and almost all over the world.
El Niño usually brings a rise in sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This leads to increased precipitation in southern South America and the southern United States, as well as in the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. At the same time, El Niño is often associated with severe droughts in Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia.
Faster than expected: – Like no other
May affect Europe
The weather phenomenon could have consequences in Europe, too.
In April, the European Union’s climate program Copernicus published its annual climate report, which showed, among other things, that Europe experienced its hottest summer on record in 2022.
So far this year, parts of southern Europe have also set many temperature records, and forecasts also say that we will have a hot and dry summer in Europe this year.
Cicero Research Center for Climate Research Bjørn Hallvard Samset recently explained to Dagbladet that the impacts on Europe in general are not expected to be significant when it comes to these weather phenomena in the Pacific region.
However, he came up with a clear idea but:
– As the entire world gets warmer, it also gives us more chance of heat waves and heavy rains hitting us. It reinforces the patterns that we have, and we’ll be able to see that in El Niño. Samst says it could cause an even stronger heat wave in Europe.
Grim verdict: they lost the battle
“Super El Niño”
If we get a strong El Niño, global warming is likely to get a “boost” this year and next.
Ilgil Kaas, a climate researcher at the National Center for Climate Research at the Danish Meteorological Institute, says: Extra Magazine Some models also suggest that the next El Niño may be more powerful, a so-called “super El Niño”.
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims for a global temperature rise preferably of no more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times, and no more than 2 degrees.
However, Cass fears the 1.5-degree target for next year’s period will already be exceeded.
For his part, he stressed that this does not mean that hope is lost in the Paris Agreement.
– We’ll probably have a few years where temperatures break records in several places on Earth. We may barely get past 1.5 degrees, but then it’s likely to drop again, he told the paper.