Discover an asteroid that could hit Earth in 2046

A few days ago, on February 27, Astronomers have discovered a new asteroid baptizing 2023 d. In a joint effort of several space agencies, it was determined that there was little possibility of this asteroid Earth struck on February 14, 2046: 23 years from now.

The latest estimates indicate that the asteroid is about to arrive 50 meters in diameter. Although it seemed insignificant, it would be enough to cause great damage in the area it reached.

2023DW is currently ranked first on the European Space Agency’s (ESA) list of space hazards.

It is worth remembering that, however, the analysis of the body’s orbit has been based on this so far Less than 100 notes. This is a low figure, and precisely because of this conclusions about your track still preliminary. Over the next few weeks, more data and observations of the object will be able to improve the estimate of its orbit.

Currently, the probability of the object colliding with the planet is already high less than 1% (More specifically, 1 in 625). Astronomers believe that with a more accurate orbit estimate, The probability must become zero. Potential impact sites can still be estimated mathematically.

currently asteroid The only tracked object to score on the Turin scale. Its value is 1, which means that this is something that deserves attention, but does not yet pose any proven danger to us.

In general, what happens when things of this nature are detected is: like Orbit estimates become more accurate, astronomers end up discovering that the object will eventually pass away from the planet. this It happened several times in recent months.

The Turin Scale is used to rate the risks that asteroids and comets pose to us. Combines the probability of impact and potential damage to the body into a single value ranging from 0 (not dangerous) to 10 (very dangerous).

You might be wondering why Threatening meteorites had become more numerous over the past few months. The fact is that the number of asteroids does not change, but our technology does.

Why are more and more meteorites classified as dangerous?

It’s not that they’re becoming more numerous, but the increasing space observing technology is allowing astronomers to do so Identify things that were previously unobservable.

This means that in the coming years, Find things like 2023 d It will become routine. telescopes like Vera RubinHey NEO surveyor and the Neumerewhich will open soon, will be able to detect smaller and more numerous objects.

Just a month ago, Hungarian Krisztián Sarneczky He discovered an asteroid just hours before it was to hit France. The body was small and only brief creation Displays of lights over the country, but it shows how our ability to detect is increasing.

For now, we can sleep easy: 2023DW probably won’t hit the planet And if that happens, it will be far from causing the end of the human race. The object is similar to the meteor that hit Russia in 1908: it was able to destroy part of the forest and cause three deaths, but anyway, You Your damage was only superficial.