By Bond Robertson 
It began on Friday, and since then alarm bells have sounded almost continuously in the region where the world’s largest power struggle is raging.
In general, there is a conflict between the world’s largest superpower, the United States, and the fledgling superpower, China. The battle takes place in China’s backyard, and in the middle lies Taiwan, which wants independence and fears a Chinese invasion.
– There are three different ways of looking at this. First, there may be psychological warfare by showing force. Second, it could be a form of sending signals to Taiwan and the outside world, especially the United States. Third, there may simply be preparations before the invasion, even if that is less likely, Joe Jacobsen, a professor at NTNU and an expert on international politics, tells Dagbladet.
Record on the record
Over the past year or so, China has sent warplanes to Taiwan. Everyone has flown into Taiwan’s self-declared airspace – the so-called Taiwan ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone).
When an aircraft moves in this airspace, Taiwan requires the aircraft to identify itself. When that doesn’t happen, the alarm goes off to the Taiwan Air Force.
On Friday, the alarm rang again.
On the occasion of China’s National Day, the Chinese authorities sent a total of 38 warplanes – more than 30 combat aircraft and several bombers – to Taiwan.
The next day, on Saturday, China ramped up its efforts and sent 39 warplanes to Taiwan – the highest number ever.
United States extended
After Saturday’s inauspicious record, the United States advanced strongly against China on Sunday. In a statement, Joe Biden’s government accused the Chinese government of acting “provocatively” and “destabilizing” toward Taiwan.
“We are very concerned about China’s provocative military activity near Taiwan,” he said. This was stated in a statement by the US State Department.
China expands its nuclear arsenal
Taiwan, for its part, has come out and accused China of “harassment,” the NTB writes.
Then on Monday came a new alarm bell in Taiwan. China’s tireless response was clear:
As many as 52 warplanes moved into Taiwan’s airspace on Monday afternoon, Norwegian time. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense.
Once again a dismal record was set.
“too stressful”
China considers Taiwan a part of China, and aims to reunite mainland China with the archipelago.
Taiwan wants independence, but it does not dare to declare independence from China for fear of invasion. It is official Chinese policy to reunify Taiwan with China, even if it involves the use of force.
ADIZ airspace is not Taiwanese airspace, and in fact it extends over parts of mainland China.
For Taiwan, China’s constant flights around its outer border anyway are “extremely stressful,” says NTNU professor, Jacobsen.
It can put Norway in a difficult situation
For every Chinese flight, Taiwan’s defense must rise into the air and recognize it, as Norway does when Russian planes move in the same airspace around us, Jacobsen says.
Says that at that moment Taiwan Not If this is the case, a security hole will emerge in Taiwan’s defense and thus also an implicit advantage for China.
Then China gains a psychological advantage and a perception of military superiority is formed. Doing it every day, several times a day — Jacobsen says it struggles a lot.
Jacobsen believes that this can be considered psychological warfare.
– This is a game where a lot of things can go wrong, says the NTNU professor.
China’s message: – We decide
All Chinese flights can also be a signal. From China to Taiwan, the United States and the rest of the world.
– Jacobsen says the message to Taiwan is that they must limit their desire for independence.
Just over two weeks ago, China sent 24 fighter jets to the island in response to Taiwan’s request to join the TPP trade group.
– You will crush their heads
Trade agreements with other countries are something that independent nations engage in, and China has sent Taiwan a signal that this is not acceptable, says Jacobsen.
In general, the message to the world, and particularly the United States, is simple:
– What China wants to indicate is: “Here we are the ones to decide,” says the professor.
Announcement of the security agreement
The United States is one of Taiwan’s most important allies, but since 1979, when the United States established diplomatic relations with China, and until this year, the relationship has been informal. Reason? The United States did not want to go out with China.
But one of the last things former President Donald Trump did before he ignominiously left the White House was remove the United States’ self-imposed restrictions on establishing formal relations with Taiwan.
Now it’s serious
The current US President Joe Biden chose not only to continue the policy of confrontation with China, but to strengthen it.
A few weeks ago, Biden announced that the United States, Britain and Australia had entered into a defense pact. Although they do not say it explicitly, the agreement is intended to counter China, which in recent years has acquired large geographic areas in the South China Sea.
Jacobsen cannot rule out that this contributed to the demonstration of China’s military might.
Military solution is more attractive
The NTNU professor also cannot rule out that the numerous flights in ADIZ’s Taiwan airspace have more somber undertones.
Even if the probability is small, it cannot be excluded that these are preparations for an invasion that may be far in the future. You can’t conquer something if you don’t practice it, says Jacobsen.
He asserts that this is a “worst case” scenario.
– It can also be interpreted as a part of escalation where the conquest is the final destination. Jacobsen says that the stronger China becomes militarily, and gradually becomes so all the time, the more capable China will be to do something like this.
Jacobsen says China has long tried to forge closer ties with Taiwan, among other things through trade and the economy, but those attempts have been largely unsuccessful.
– So this military solution will be more attractive in line with the growth of China. On the other hand, it is therefore necessary for Taiwan to consider its own military capabilities. Then we witness an arms race with more excitement. There is a great deal of seriousness to this here, says the NTNU professor.