The new savings certificates, launched six months ago, are “increasingly less interesting” and repayments can exceed cash flows, but those with older ones should keep them, says Deco Prosti financial analyst Antonio Ribeiro.
The interest rate at which the new F series was launched (varies depending on the three-month Euribor rate, and cannot exceed 2.5%) and the higher remuneration on term deposits that banks began to offer in the meantime, led to an increase in demand for savings certificates (CA). It stalled sharply from June onwards, and in October (the last month for which data is available) the difference between issuances (fund flows) and repayments was only €39 million.
Given the increase in interest rates on term deposits, Antonio Ribeiro highlights that “savings certificates, which lost interest when the new series was created, are now less interesting,” admitting that even if interest rates on deposits stabilize, these public debt securities should That the demand continues to be “less and less.”
This is a situation that contrasts with the situation we witnessed during the first half of this year, when the Series E was still being sold, as financial flows to California exceeded the barrier of three billion euros in two months (January and March), and were witnessed in only one month (April). It was less than two billion euros.
With the arrival of the Series F – with a less generous base interest rate plus a retention bonus of 1.75% in the 14th and 15th years – at the beginning of June, issuances slowed down, to the point that in October it received an inflow of 271 million euros, about less than 10 times the value recorded in May.
As Antonio Ribeiro notes, if California’s interest rate (2.5%) in June was “in line with the best deposits, it quickly fell behind” because since then, “banks have been raising deposit rates,” where they currently stand. “About a hundred time deposits offer a return equal to or greater than that of savings certificates.”
“Assuming the base rate is 2.5% gross [da série F] They are held into the future and, taking into account retention bonuses, provide for five years a net annual return of 2%; And 2.4% if applied for a maximum of 15 years. There are currently deposits in the market with a return of up to 3% net over 12 months,” notes the Deco financial analyst.
Antonio Ribeiro reiterates that the launch of the new CA series “was very harmful to the saver, who has fewer alternatives left to invest his savings” and was a “bad measure” that “was only in the interests of the banks.”
While the Euribor interest rate, says Antonio Ribeiro, is close to 4%, and the European Central Bank is giving no indication that it intends to cut key interest rates in the short term, “if this scenario continues, recoveries from this series may exceed subscriptions,” as happens with treasury certificates.
“If Series F, which has just been born, is already dying, then Treasury Savings Value Certificates are in a critical situation, with a yield of less than 1%,” he asserts. However, it is noted that for those who have attested certificates from the previous series, the reward rate is higher, so holders must maintain them.
“Everyone who has the old series of savings certificates should keep them, because interest rates are much higher. For example, in Series C the rate exceeds 6%, in Series D 4.5% and in Series E (which was valid until June) the base rate is between 3.5 and 4.5%, depending on the subscription date,” he says.
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