Anders Magnus, Emmanuel Macron | China is preparing for war. But we’d prefer to see another way

Over the past decade, China has doubled its military budget. This year there has been an increase of 7.2 percent – far more than the country’s assumed growth. Now China’s dictator Xi Jinping is telling his generals that they must prepare for war and “dare to fight.”

In an article in the magazine “foreign affairs” It was warned that “the world should take Xi Jinping seriously when he says he is preparing China for war”. The article’s authors are the former Beijing bureau chief of The Washington Post, John Pomfret, and the former assistant to the US National Security Adviser, Matt Pottinger.

Naive Macron

But not all heads of state in Europe share the fear of Chinese aggression against Taiwan. In particular, French President Emmanuel Macron. He visited Beijing recently, where he received a great welcome and many kind words from Xi Jinping.

After the visit, Macron allowed himself to be interviewed by American and French journalists. Parts of Macron’s remarks on Taiwan were later censored by the French presidential office. But even what was allowed to be published was controversial enough. In both the United States and Europe, he is now being criticized for being naive towards China’s rulers, and for having learned nothing from Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

During the visit to China, Macron appeared in Chinese media – all controlled by the Communist Party – smiling and slapping China’s dictator Xi Jinping and emphasizing the importance of a “global partnership with China”.

He repeated the Chinese mantra that world politics should be “multi-polar” – that is, without the hegemony of the Americans. Macron’s message to the United States has always been that he wants a Europe that stands on its own two feet, both economically and militarily.

Taiwan’s future is at stake

The island nation of Taiwan, located just south of China, has enjoyed independence since 1949. The country has developed one of the most democratic forms of government in the world. Unlike China, where the Communist Party and its president, Xi Jinping, rule a society that is today one of the most authoritarian in the world. But Xi and the Communist Party believe Taiwan belongs to them, and are willing to use any means — including military attack — to bring the country back into the Chinese fold.

US President Joe Biden has confirmed four times that Americans will come to Taiwan’s aid if the island nation is attacked by China.

French President Macron does not care about the future of democratic Taiwan:

“This is not our struggle,” he said after his visit to Beijing. He added, “The worst that can happen is that we Europeans follow the US agenda on this issue.”

European Union President Ursula von der Leyen joined Macron in Beijing. She has been vocal in her criticism of China’s aggression against Taiwan, and has warned against changing the situation by force.

As a result, there were few pictures of von der Leyen’s visit in the communist-controlled media, nor did she receive the same warm reception from the Chinese hosts as Macron.

Strong reactions against Macron

Macron’s outspokenness towards the Chinese dictator provoked strong reactions in both the United States and Europe:

“It seems quite strange that right after Xi leaves, he says that we in Europe should not care about Taiwan,” said Guntram Wolf, director of the German Foreign Affairs Council.

In the US, Republicans are following Mike Gallagher. Chairman of the Chinese Committee in the House of Representatives:

“Macron’s remarks fit into the Chinese Communist Party’s strategy to divide the United States and Europe. This is a huge propaganda win for the party,” Gallagher told CNN.

US political analyst Francis Fukuyama wrote on Twitter: “Macron learned nothing from the Ukraine war.”

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He was joined by Senator Marco Rubio, who said that the Europeans could take care of Ukraine themselves, if Macron spoke for the entire European community. In the United States, there is now growing criticism of large grants to Ukraine. Criticism drowns in the sails of such statements made by Macron.

Today, the United States is responsible for most of the support to Ukraine, both financially and with weapons. Without this support, the country would have surrendered to the Russian invaders long ago.

We have a vested interest in the survival of Taiwan

In the party’s speeches about why the West supports Ukraine, there was much talk of defending democracy in Ukraine against Russian autocracy. The same should be true of Taiwan: that country has a much better democracy than it did in Ukraine, and Taiwan faces a Chinese dictatorship even more authoritarian than Russia.

In addition to defending democracy in Taiwan, we also have financial interests to take care of. Although Taiwan is on the other side of the world, the country is absolutely essential to the Western economy and the products we surround ourselves with on a daily basis.

Taiwan produces 60 percent of all microchips in the world, and 90 percent of the most advanced chips. Today, these microchips are used in almost everything we surround ourselves with, from cell phones to computers to cars to milking machines — and weapons. Without Taiwan, we will be backwards technologically for many decades.

The practice of encircling Taiwan

Shortly after Macron left Beijing, the Chinese Communists launched major military exercises around Taiwan. Officially, the goal was to “punish” Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen for allowing herself to visit the elected leader of the House of Representatives of the US National Assembly Congress, Republican Kevin McCarthy.

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But perhaps the most realistic was the need to practice “surrounding Taiwan” and practicing “waves of simulated attacks on strategic targets,” as the Chinese military leadership put it. After the exercise, they concluded that the armed forces had demonstrated that China’s soldiers were “willing to fight for the resolute destruction of any form of Taiwan independence and attempts at foreign interference.”

China is preparing for war

Pomfret and Pottinger wrote in Foreign Affairs: “Several actions are now being recorded on the Chinese side to prepare for such a battle against Taiwan”:

In recent months, new laws have been passed for China to prepare its military forces for war.

In cities along the coast on the Chinese side of the Taiwan Strait, new shelters are now being built for residents. A new hospital for war casualties is also being monitored.

In this region near Taiwan, authorities block internet access for foreign IP addresses of government websites. To be able to hide war preparations from the outside world.

Read more comments from Anders Magnus here

New army recruiting centers are being set up across the country. Here the Chinese learned a lesson from the slow Russian mobilization of soldiers for the war in Ukraine.

He planned to create a blacklist of political leaders and independence activists in Taiwan, in order to assassinate them.

Plans to increase grain production, among other things, so that China can be independent of imports of food and other vital commodities in the event of war.

China’s dictator Xi Jinping declared in a speech in March this year that the most important thing in his campaign to rejuvenate China is “the reunification of the motherland.” This means that Taiwan will be occupied by China voluntarily or by force.

It is now important for us in the West to listen to what Xi Jinping actually says and does, and not lull us into believing that China will never dare go to war, as Macron does. And as our Conservative leader Erna Solberg does when she called for increased economic cooperation with China.

If we have learned anything from the war in Ukraine, it is that authoritarian regimes are willing to use force — including military force — to achieve what their dictatorial leaders have set as goals.