Alexander Lukashenko, non-Hagen Carlsen

American Thought Center Robert Lansing Institute (RLI) He made the sensational claim that Russia is planning to eliminate the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko. The research center refers to secret sources in the Russian defense claiming that this is a plan being considered by Russia to involve Belarus in the invasion of Ukraine.

– In this case, the sources they have must be someone who opposes doing something like that. In general, I would say such coup attempts are something you want to keep very secret. This also applies when we read about speculation about a coup against Putin, those who might be planning something like this are in a very vulnerable position, Lieutenant Colonel and Director of the School of Staff, Geir Hagen Carlsen, tells Netavien.

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According to RLI, it is the Russian military intelligence that has assassination plans against the leader of Belarus. The scenario is that Lukashenko is removed from office and replaced by a pro-Russian general named Stanislav Zass. He was previously Secretary General of the Collective Security Pact, Russia’s answer to NATO. Zas was born in Ukraine, but served in the Belarusian armed forces, and the GRU reportedly believes he is the man who can control Putin for military resources in Belarus.

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The plan is to blame Ukraine, Poland and NATO for the assassination, regardless of whether Lukashenko survived or not, and thus be able to justify sending Belarusian soldiers to Ukraine.

The GRU is also the same organization that the PST believes is an agent of a suspected visiting scholar spy at the University of Tromsø.

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Mysterious cause of death

Recently, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus Vladimir Makej passed away, but no information was given about the cause of death. McGee has been one of Lukashenko’s closest supporters and is said to know “everything” about the president.

– Former Belarusian Minister and Ambassador Pavel Latushka said that he knows more about Lukashenko and his life than anyone else, and about Lukashenko’s personal life more than anyone else. to Nexta TV.

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There are rumors that he may have been poisoned. Makej was a potential successor to Lukashenko. He was one of the few who were not under Russian influence. Rumor has it that this could be a hint at Lukashenko on Twitter. He is an advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

Mikj died before he met fellow Russian Sergey Lavrov, on 28 November, and The Russian authorities also expressed their grief over the loss of her “Belarusian boyfriend.”. “

Balancing on the edge of a knife

Alexander Lukashenko’s regime was on the verge of collapse in 2020. Then, massive demonstrations broke out in the country, after the regime conducted elections with massive electoral fraud. The demonstrations were brutally suppressed by security forces loyal to the regime, and Lukashenko continued as the country’s leader, a position he has held since 1994.

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– When you get demonstrations like the one we had in 2020, you never know when the security forces will have enough and change sides. It happened in Ukraine in 2014, and then it completely dawned on then-president Viktor Yanukovych, Lieutenant Colonel Carlsen tells Netavisen.

Belarus did not participate in the invasion of Ukraine with its own military forces, but it did support the Russian invasion in several other ways. They allowed Russian forces to use Belarus as a base of war, and also donated ammunition, weapons, tanks, and other equipment to Russia.

– Central sources in Belarus believe that it will not be very popular among the population if it enters the war actively, it may create a new situation with intensified demonstrations in the country, Carlsen tells Netavisen.

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Staff School Professor Tormod Heyer shares Carlsen’s opinion that Lukashenko is sitting “between the bark and the wood.”

– There is strong pressure between Russian expectations and strong local expectations to move away. Lukashenko balances on a knife edge. Heier tells Nettavisen that he relies on close defense cooperation with Russia, but also relies on social stability to avoid riots and unrest in his country.

He adds:

Being the host country for Russian forces is an acceptable risk for Lukashenko at the moment.

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could threaten the system

Carlsen believes that Putin and his allies in the Kremlin will avoid the demonstrations in Belarus, fearing that they will spread to Russia and thus threaten the country’s order.

– There are also fears that the Belarusian forces will turn against the regime if they are sent to the war in Ukraine, says the lieutenant colonel.

– Judging by the large demonstrations of recent years, the war of aggression by Belarus will lead to new protests. Heyer points out that it is almost unrealistic to present Lukashenko with a convincing narrative that they are going to send troops to war.

According to Carlsen, the Belarusian Defense Forces number about 40,000 soldiers. In comparison, the American General has Mark Milley He said that Russia had at least 100,000 dead and wounded so far in the war, and that Ukraine probably had losses of an order of magnitude.

– Not all of them are combat forces, moreover, they have little experience in major military operations and have handed over a great deal of equipment to the Russians. Militarily, what they have to contribute is limited, and therefore the Russians will not get much out of it militarily, the expert believes.

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logistical problems

Since the beginning of the war, Belarus has conducted almost continuous military exercises on the border with Ukraine. This has forced the Ukrainian army to mobilize forces along the border between the two countries, in the event that Belarus sends its forces to Ukraine. The weapons, soldiers, and equipment that Ukraine has linked up along the border with Belarus are urgently needed elsewhere along the front line.

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Before Russia invaded Ukraine, many believed that Russia had the second best army in the world, only defeated by the United States. After the invasion, the Russian army was shown to have major problems in many areas, including logistics. One of the most famous examples is the huge column of military vehicles that were left behind on the road to Kyiv at the beginning of the war.

The Russians have not been able to get rid of the logistical problems from which they have suffered almost continuously since the invasion on February 24, and none other than Hagen Carlsen knows if the Russians will thus open a new front against Ukraine through Belarus.

– It’s a bad coup plan if you can read about it in the papers, says Carlsen.

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