A large majority of three out of four Portuguese believe that “the best thing for the country” would be the approval of the 2025 state budget, according to the survey by CESOP – Center for Catholic University Studies conducted between 17 and 19 November. October 23, the period in which the direction of the Socialist Party vote to vote on the document in the Council of the Republic had already been announced.
A minority of 13% believes that rejecting the budget would be better for the country, and 11% do not know or do not answer.
In a situation where the feasibility of the budget depends on “non-rejection” by the PS or Chega benches (or both simultaneously), those questioned by CESOP consider that both PS and Chega should allow the budget to pass, not reject the government's proposal .
However, a greater number of Portuguese people place this obligation to approve the budget on the Socialists.
Regarding the question, “What is the position of the Socialist Party representatives?”, 79% answered, “Leave it,” compared to 12% who chose, “Reject.”
To the same question about Chiga's position, the answer was 57% “leave him” and 22% answered “reject.”
Bullets won't help anyone
The responses show that the Portuguese consider that the potential progress would not be beneficial to either party (50%). However, a significant percentage of 39% of respondents see this progress as a benefit to one party.
When asked which parties these would be, the answer mostly points to Chiga (18%), followed by the Socialist Party (13%) and, finally, the AD–PSD, CDS/PP and PPM coalition (11%).
However, there is a contradiction when we see the answers to the question of who is most responsible in the case of budget leadership: the majority points the finger at Luis Montenegro (37% – versus 31% targeting Pedro Nuno Santos). Respondents consider failure to be mainly the responsibility of the Prime Minister, although two questions earlier acknowledged that it was the Prime Minister who did his best to make this budget viable.
In the opinion of sample members, it was Luis Montenegro who “made the most effort to get the budget approved,” with 62% of responses, followed closely by the Secretary General of the Socialist Party, Pedro Nuno Santos, with only 21% of responses.
Regarding the discussion of the document, previously negotiated between the government and the Socialist Party, the Portuguese see the two topics highlighted in these talks between Montenegro and Pedro Nuno – a special tax authority system that would reduce taxes for the youngest up to the age of 35; And an IRC cut that would cut taxes for all businesses — which is just as important for the country: 16% chose the “new IRS cut,” and 19% chose the “IRC cut.”
But even more significant was the 51% majority of respondents who considered it would be important to reduce both taxes simultaneously, the IRS Jovem and the IRC.
Finally, the question was also raised about what to do with bullets in the hands of the President of the Republic. The Portuguese response is clear in terms of avoiding new elections at all costs: 67% say a new budget should be presented compared to 29% who demand the dissolution of the Council of the Republic.
Technical paper
This poll was conducted by CESOP-Universidade Católica Portuguesa for RTP, Antena 1 and Público between 17 and 23 October 2024. The target universe consists of voters residing in Portugal. Participants were randomly selected from a list of mobile phone numbers, which were also randomly generated. All interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI). Participants were informed of the purpose of the study and indicated their willingness to participate. A total of 1025 valid questionnaires were obtained, and 45% of participants were women. Geographical distribution: 31% from the North, 19% from the Centre, 34% from AM Lisbon, 8% from Alentejo, 4% from the Algarve, 2% from Madeira and 2% from the Azores. All results obtained were then weighted according to the distribution of the population by gender, age groups, region, and voting behavior based on data from the electoral census and recent legislative elections. The response rate was 19%*. The maximum margin of error associated with a random sample of 1,025 respondents is 3.0%, with a confidence level of 95%.
*5,399 people contacted. Of these, 1,025 agreed to participate in the survey and answer the end of the questionnaire.
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