By Bond Robertson 
Why is everyone talking about the swing? Why do presidential candidates spend so much time in the “little” state of Pennsylvania?
With less than two weeks until the election, it is not entirely clear who will move into the White House.
In many of the 50 states, it's a given who will emerge victorious. Therefore, the seven swing states, which are neither clearly blue (Democrat) nor red (Republican), become decisive.
Next President: One of them will be President of the United States for the next four years. We will find out which one it will be after the polls close in a week and a half. Photography: Ilya Novellaj and Jeff Robbins/AFP/NTB
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– Trump seems to be in his element. He can quickly win almost all the swing states. If so, he will clearly win the Electoral College and make his top choice.
This is what American researcher Hjalmar Melde, a professor of political science who holds a doctorate in comparative politics at the University of Western Norway, tells Dagbladet.
States that tend to shift: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia are states that tend to shift. Obviously it is neither blue nor red. Image: Shutterstock/NTB
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After President Joe Biden withdrew from the campaign in July, the wind was blowing on Kamala Harris, and she looked promising in the polls. But in recent weeks, the numbers have changed – in favor of Republicans.
but:
Most polls are within the margin of error, indicating that the race is almost dead between the two candidates. looking at New York Times' In the poll, Harris leads by just under two percentage points – 48 to 46. According to this, Harris is also ahead in four out of seven swing states.
However, if you look at the analysis site 538 and ABC News' In an opinion poll, Trump is ahead in four states, and there is a dead end in one of them.
And according to famous analyst and number cruncher Nate Silver, he did just that I collected many opinion pollsThere is a big difference between the candidates:
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It is estimated that Harris's chance of winning the election is 46 percent, while it is estimated that Trump's chance of winning is 53.7 percent.
Milde believes Harris still has a very good chance of winning the election, and notes that polls underestimated Democrats in 2012.
Harris is underrated in the sprint race. He says it's very likely Trump will win, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Harris wins.
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– It bodes well for Republicans
Of the seven swing states, it is interesting how Pennsylvanians vote, as they have the largest number of voters. If you don't win this state, it's hard to win the election.
-We may be seeing signs that Pennsylvania is slowly but surely becoming more Republican. In this case, that bodes very well for Republicans — perhaps in many elections to come, Melde says.
– Even: Hjalmar Melde, a professor of political science at the University of Western Norway, says there is great parity between the presidential candidates. Photo: Mauricio Paves/HVL
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He also points to Georgia and North Carolina as particularly interesting among the swing states.
We constantly hear that Democrats may face a breakthrough in the southern states. In that case, he says, Republican control of the northern Midwest could be eliminated.
Although many polls bode well for Trump supporters, Milde points out that it's entirely possible that Harris' support is underestimated.
– In that case, she is the one who can surprise in these elections. Therefore it is not certain that this will be the case even in the end, and it is a very difficult choice to predict the winner. He says this is not usually the case in modern-day presidential elections.
Betting boom on Trump
-Very exciting
Traditionally, swing states in the north vote equally. The winner in Pennsylvania usually wins the presidential election.
We may see the swing states in the north vote differently this year, which will be very interesting. As of today, I consider Trump the favorite in the majority of swing states. Milde says he usually does this forcefully at the end of an election campaign.
270 to win collects polls. See their election forecasts and the number of voters in each state in the map below:
Americans vote for electors, who then choose the next president. Electors pledge to vote for a specific presidential candidate.
There are 538 electors who decide who will be the next president. A presidential candidate needs 270 electoral votes for the candidate to win.
If things go as expected in most states, Harris will need 44 electoral votes from swing states. The corresponding number for Trump is 51. In six of the seven swing states, Democratic President Joe Biden won in 2020.
This is the number of voters in swing states:
- Pennsylvania: 19 (Biden won 1.2 percent in 2020)
- Georgia: 16 (Biden won 0.2 percent in 2020)
- North Carolina: 16 (Trump won 1.3 percent in 2020)
- Michigan: 15th (Biden won 2.8 percent in 2020)
- Arizona: 11 (Biden won 0.3 percent in 2020)
- Wisconsin: 10th (Biden won 0.6 percent in 2020)
- Nevada: VI (Biden won 2.4 percent in 2020)
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– I believe and hope that Harris will win
Eric Locke, an American expert and consultant at the liberal think tank Civita, points out that Texas deserves more attention during the elections.
The state is witnessing demographic changes. It will be interesting to see how much or how little Trump wins, he tells Dagbladet.
Points to Texans: Eric Locke thinks the Texans' pursuit will be very exciting. Photo: CF-Wesenberg / Kolonihaven.no
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Locke believes there is a chance that Trump could win a much larger share of the minority vote than previous Republican presidential candidates.
– Otherwise it's even terrible. Almost all measurements are within the margin of error. Then it also remains to be seen how well the polls fare. I believe and hope that Harris wins Pennsylvania.