The Electoral Commission of Belarus has decided to hold the next presidential elections on January 26 next year. Since 1994, the country's current authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has been in power in Minsk and is expected to achieve victory again in an election that will be rigged by all accounts.
On the other hand, dissatisfaction with “Europe's last dictator” is growing among residents of the former Soviet state.
Belarus has only had one fair election in its history, and that was when Lukashenko was elected president in 1994. Since then, the repression has become more widespread so that he can remain in power.
Arvi Hansen of the Helsinki Committee tells ABC News. He has researched mass protests and opposition culture in Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia, and taught in the Belarusian capital, Minsk.
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Watch the video: North Korean soldiers will appear in Russia
Violence, violence and more violence
Arvi Hansen holds a PhD in Area Studies from the University of Tromsø and has researched mass protests and opposition culture in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia, as well as the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Photo: Ihn Pedersen/Norwegian Helsinki Committee
In 2020, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians took to the streets as Alexander Lukashenko scored another election victory. There was a barrage of accusations of election fraud. The opposition, led by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, claimed that she was the real winner of the election.
The regime in Minsk severely suppressed the protests. More than 35,000 people were arrested, many killed, and independent media and a number of organizations were banned. Several hundred dissidents ended up in prison.
Despite high levels of dissatisfaction with the regime, Hansen does not believe we will see a repeat in January next year.
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– The repression apparatus is very active now in light of the war.
According to Arv Hansen, the 2020 protests were presided over by a mountain of violence and repression that had accumulated in recent decades. Only a year and a half later, Russian forces launched a full-scale war against their common neighbor, Ukraine.
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Parts of the invasion force entered Ukraine via Belarus.
Dissatisfaction with Lukashenko is greater than ever because he simply dragged Belarus into a war against a people with whom they have a close relationship, says Hansen at the Helsinki Committee.
Here you can read about the war in Ukraine!
It is stated that Belarusians have more in common linguistically and culturally with Ukrainians than with Russians.
– Geopolitically, they are also in more or less the same situation. What is happening in Ukraine might happen in Belarus as well if things happen.
Violent demonstrations against Lukashenko and the election results in the fall of 2020 led to the arrest of several thousand. Photo: Tut.by / AFP / NTB
-Putin is terrified
Hansen explains that Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin depend on each other to secure their authoritarian regimes in their countries.
-They are not very happy with each other, but they still depend on each other. Lukashenko relies on Putin because of discontent with him in Belarus. Without Putin's help, he will not be able to maintain the system.
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On the other hand, it is in Putin's interest for Lukashenko's regime to keep its head above water.
-If something happens in Belarus, it could quickly spread to Russia. Belarus is among the most powerful and repressive police states in the world. Many Russians realize this, and if they see that Belarusians are capable of overthrowing the regime and bringing about change, it could open the way for something similar to happen in Russia.
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When protests were at their worst in Belarus in 2020, Putin intervened by providing political, cultural and financial support to Lukashenko's regime.
– The threat of change was the reason behind Putin's move in Belarus. This also applies to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and when Russia intervened in Kazakhstan in the same year. Putin is terrified by protests and demonstrations in what the Kremlin calls his near abroad.
Alexander Lukashenko rules Belarus with an iron fist. Here he arrives at the BRICS meeting in Kazan, Russia, on October 24. Photograph: Kirill Zykov/Reuters/NTB
Increased stress
In connection with Putin's war in Ukraine, the regime in Minsk took several measures and issued many warnings and threats.
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In September of this year, Vladimir Putin proposed changes to Russian nuclear doctrine. The changes mean that Russia can use nuclear weapons if attacked, and that any conventional attack on Russia backed by a nuclear force would be considered a “joint attack.”
A few days later, the state-controlled Belarusian news agency BelTA wrote that Lukashenko warned against using nuclear weapons against NATO if it attacked Belarus in addition to Russia.
Last March, Vladimir Putin announced that Russian nuclear weapons would be deployed on Belarusian territory. A few months later, Lukashenko himself said that the country had begun receiving tactical nuclear weapons.
Before and after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Belarusian and Russian forces conducted joint military exercises.
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