The global level of insolvencies is expected to rise by 23% in 2024, with North America leading the way with an expected growth of 29%, driven by the development of insolvencies in the United States of America. In Asia Pacific and Europe, forecasts indicate an increase of 23% and 16%, respectively. This growth comes after a significant 31% increase in insolvencies recorded in 2023.

According to the Crédito y Caución report, of the 29 markets analyzed, 23 have already recovered or exceeded pre-pandemic levels. However, companies' accumulated reserves are under pressure due to falling profit margins and tightening financing conditions. Managing the debt accumulated during the pandemic has become increasingly difficult in a context of high interest rates and low growth.

In the United States, the Netherlands and Italy, the increase in insolvencies is occurring in a scenario of adjustment to pre-pandemic levels. Countries such as Germany and Japan are also seeing growth compared to 2019 numbers. The most worrying situation is seen in markets such as Spain, France, Australia, Sweden and Austria, where a deterioration in insolvencies in 2024 occurs simultaneously with rising insolvency levels. Pointing out that the increase is the result of factors that have nothing to do with returning to normal life.

In contrast, insolvencies in Portugal appear to have stabilized below pre-pandemic levels, while Denmark is the only market in the region that is expected to see a significant decline in insolvencies.

The outlook for 2025 offers a more stable outlook, with a predictable rebound in economic growth. As monetary policy eases and the economic environment stabilizes, an improvement in the trend of insolvencies is expected, which may see a decline of 3% globally.