“Ukraine has always said it intends to withdraw. I don’t believe in the theory that they are trying to hold on to territory until a peace agreement is reached, that is far-fetched,” Arne Baard Dalhaug, a retired lieutenant general and former chief of defence, told Dagbladet.

It is now exactly six weeks since the Ukrainians put belligerent Russia in its place when they invaded Russia's border province of Kursk, in the first invasion of Russian territory since then. Operation BarbarossaThe German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941.

– Buffer zone

The invasion force quickly penetrated several miles into the country and took control of an area of ​​about 1,000 square kilometers, including nearly a hundred villages and other settlements. Thousands of terrified civilians were forced to flee.

The goal of the invasion was not immediately announced from the Ukrainian side. President Volodymyr Zelensky initially spoke of taking the war to Russia and forcing the country to make peace.

He later said the goal was to create a “buffer zone” to protect the residents of the Sumy region on the Ukrainian side of the border from Russian attacks. Another stated goal was to force the Russians to withdraw their forces from the Donbas to defend Kursk.

conflicting information

But before the weekend, the Russians announced that they had launched a counterattack. This is confirmed by the Ukrainian authorities as well as foreign intelligence.

– Russian forces, led by infantry units of the Air Force and Navy, attacked Ukrainian positions west of the “bulge”. [det ukrainske innhogget på russisk territorium]It is very likely that it has retaken several villages, according to reports. British Military Intelligence.

American Research Group and Think Tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) A report released on Monday summarizes that Ukrainians and Russians are making alternating advances around the village of Veseluzhi near the border.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced today, Tuesday, via the official news agency, clawThe Ukrainians suffered heavy human and material losses in Kursk.

“There is no indication that the Russians are amassing enough forces to be particularly effective.”
Arne Bard Dalhaug, retired Lieutenant General and former Chief of Defence

Equal State Agency RIA Novosti A Russian commander in the counterattack was quoted as saying they had isolated an unspecified Ukrainian force from the main force.

– On September 10, during the counterattack, the enemy fell into a trap, and they are still trying to get out of it, the officer says.

– success

Ukrainian newspaper Ukrainian Pravda For his part, he focuses on video footage of a Russian amphibious tank (for use on land and in water) of this type. BMD-4 Destroyed by Ukrainian artillery and combat drones in a village in Kursk.

The car flipped over. The newspaper reported that the wounded and unconscious were scattered across the ruins of the Russian village, where Ukrainian soldiers were already waiting for them.

New weapon: Very good

President Zelensky last week described the invasion of Kursk as “successful.”

– He said it was going according to our Ukrainian plan, and he believes the Russian counterattack shows that the Ukrainians have succeeded in redirecting Russian invasion forces to their side of the border. Newsweek.

However, Zelensky is quite clear that Ukraine still needs sufficient resources and permission to use long-range weapons produced in the West in Russia – which is currently exerting strong pressure to obtain them.

– relatively little

Former Defense Minister Dalhaug, who was also an OSCE observer in the Russian-occupied Donbas, stresses that there are not many reliable sources that can say anything about what is actually happening on the ground in Kursk.

– What we can say is that the Russians have made some progress on the far left. [vestlige] The area is a relatively small area, he tells Dagbladet.

He adds:

– In general, we can trust Ukraine more than Russia when it comes to such information.

– If the Ukrainians completely withdraw from Kursk – what will happen?

– It all depends on how you do it. If the forces you extract are relatively intact and functional, they can quickly be used again somewhere else. But they can also see value in holding onto land, and then they can end up losing. [av personell]But they can also inflict greater losses on the Russians.

– Barely effective

The retired team continues:

ISW: Made “cheap” progress.

– If the Russians are not effective, the Ukrainians can hold out. There is no indication that the Russians are amassing enough forces to be particularly effective.

Ultimately, the length of the Ukrainian invasion will depend on the Russians’ efforts to push them back, the former defense secretary believes.

“If the Russians move too many forces there, the Ukrainians can withdraw from an economy of force standpoint. On the other hand, if they can sit there for another year, they can strengthen their bargaining chip in peace negotiations — and at the same time probably not pay the price,” says Dalhaug, but he is skeptical of such an outcome.

– advised invasion

American newspaper PoliticoHe, who spoke to anonymous sources in the Ukrainian defense, wrote on Monday that several members of the Ukrainian military's top leadership advised Zelensky not to invade Russian territory.

Among them, according to the sources, is Emil Eshkulov, who was dismissed from his post as commander of the 80th Airborne Brigade, amidst large protests from other officers, according to the sources. Independent Kyiv.

Eshkulov is said to have expressed concern that his battalion inside Russia would be too exposed, with casualties rising as a result. Former defense minister and current ambassador to London Valery Zaluzhny has also taken a critical stance, according to Politico sources.

Zaluzhny believes there is no clear plan for what the invasion force will do after entering Russia.

– He never got a clear answer from Zelensky. He [Zaluzjnyj] “I thought it was a game of chance,” says an unnamed source.