There are no realistic prospects for a military solution in Ukraine.
Researcher Karen Anna Eigen’s response to our July 8 article lacks a Russian perspective. She argues that Russia can lose the war in Ukraine without Russia’s borders being threatened.
But Russia has officially declared four Ukrainian regions and Crimea its sovereign territory. The Kremlin sees any attack on these places as an attack on Russia itself. Acknowledging the existence of this official position does not mean saying that it is correct or moral.
In the comments section below our blog, Aftenposten readers compare us to Nazi sympathizers, fifth colonists, and Putinists. Such rhetoric takes us off topic.
Losing the slow war of attrition
Eigen urges the West to “push hard” on Russia. But what does that mean? Isn’t it wishful thinking to imagine that Russian President Vladimir Putin will one day lose, and until then we’ll support Ukraine “as long as it takes”?
Most informed observers agree that Russia has enough resources in the form of soldiers, industry and economy to keep going. Ukraine is losing a slow war of attrition.
The West must choose between:
- Prolonging the conflict is not conducive to winning it.
- Increase the effort, i.e. escalate it.
- Enter into negotiations.
We agree that nuclear war is not immediately likely. But the risk remains as long as NATO increases its efforts. What if there is an unexpected conventional skirmish between NATO and Russia? Eggen writes that the West has violated Russia’s red lines before, which implies that it could do so again. We believe that this situation is too risky.
Isn't now the time to negotiate?
Eigen equates Putin’s opening ceasefire terms with Ukraine’s surrender. But unconditional surrender threatens neither side. Putin’s latest announced ceasefire terms are unreasonable.
Why should Ukraine give up Kherson and Zaporizhia when they defended these cities with their lives? But are Putin’s terms so bad that a counteroffer is not possible?
We agree with Eigen that the West has a responsibility to support Ukraine to avoid collapse. But there is no realistic prospect of a military solution. What is more likely is a scenario similar to the Vietnam War, in which hundreds of thousands will die, even when it is known in the highest circles that victory is far from certain.
We are in an ambiguous situation with many open questions. Shouldn't there be negotiation in such a situation?
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