Presidential candidate Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by more than five percentage points in a recent poll.
Trump receives 45.5 percent support, while Biden receives 40.3 percent, according to the poll conducted by the Intel Atlas website.
Robert Kennedy Jr. (Independent) gets 10.3 percent.
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The survey was conducted from June 26 to June 28. That means the poll measured mood before and after Biden's disastrous performance in the televised presidential debate on Thursday night, June 27.
– This is not surprising if parts of the measurement are taken up after the discussion, says Civita advisor and American expert Eric Luke to Nettavisen.
1,634 participants took part in AtlasIntel's measurements.
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AtlasIntel also conducted one. Measurement in FebruaryAt that time, Biden was at 42.3 percent, while Trump was at 43.9 percent. Thus, Biden was down by 2 percentage points, while Trump increased his lead by another 1.6 percentage points.
Voted Most Accurate in 2020
AtlasIntel's measurements were verified by FiveThirtyEight itself and polling expert Nate Silver.
Silver named AtlasIntel the most accurate pollster in the 2020 Biden-Trump presidential election.
“The best-performing benchmark was AtlasIntel,” Silver wrote in a message on X.
Watch a video of the Trump-Biden televised duel here:
The starting point was the average margin of error of various polls in the last 21 days before the 2020 presidential election.
AtlasIntel was the leader with an average margin of error of just 2.2 percentage points. The second best team was Trafalgar with a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.
“When someone like Nate Silver has a track record, that’s a very good sign because FiveThirtyEight has a tradition of measuring even in the Trump era, which can be more difficult,” Løkke says.
At the patriots Average FiveThirtyEight Ratings Trump has 41.7 percent support, while President Biden has 40.4 percent.
– This is something completely different
Luke points out that the measurement AtlasIntel made is, ultimately, a single measurement.
– It is not unusual to see short-term changes after a political discussion, but they will recede over time. Many
“I don’t think so in this case. Barack Obama (D) had a bad first debate against Mitt Romney (R) in 2012. Ronald Reagan (R) had a bad first debate against Walter Mondale (D) in 1984. It’s not unusual for an incumbent president to do badly in an election,” Locke says of the first debate.
Both Reagan and Obama were able to recover from their poor debate performances and were re-elected to new terms.
But this debate between Trump and Biden in 2024 was something entirely different. And it wasn’t just a bad debate. “It was evidence that about 50 million voters simply saw that Biden was not fit to be president of the United States,” says Luke.
– This is something completely different from bad debate. Voter anxiety doesn't go away after that, Lucke says.
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72% believe he should resign.
Another poll showed that up to 72 percent of registered voters (Democrats, Republicans and independents) believe Biden should resign. Among Democratic voters alone, the figure was 46 percent, according to the poll. cbs news.
– Do you think Biden will resign, Luke?
– If or when there are more polls and bad internal debates in the party, pressure on it will likely increase. But he says it may be deep inside.
He believes his wife, Jill Biden, is one of the few people who can convince him to withdraw from the presidential race.
– I believe that close family members, especially the wife, are the most important.
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