By Andrea Hargraves 
Nobody dares to say with complete certainty, but poll numbers and interpretations of movements a little more than three months before the elections remove, or at least reduce, the possibility of conflict no longer focused on Luiz Inacio Lula da. Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
It is the exact time before the election that motivates caution, because polls like the one that Datafolha conducted at the end of June indicate trends at the time they were taken, but, as the cliché insists, do not replace poll results.
Other deadlines reinforce the diagnosis that the chance of new favorites emerging is remote, as well as cast doubt on Bolsonaro’s recovery conditions and Lula’s ability to manage his advantage.
The comparison to previous presidential races makes this year’s race unique in many ways, but it does reminisce about the constant danger: the premise of the unexpected and even the extraordinary — like the stab wounds Bolsonaro received in 2018.
“Considering only the natural elements of the conditions analysis, it is difficult to imagine any change in the scenario,” says political scientist Carolina de Paula. “Only if we take into account external events, such as stabbing and the like,” she continues, associated with Uerj (Rio de Janeiro State University).
Even with the adversity imposed by the wall on a total of 75% of voting intentions for Lula (47%) and Bolsonaro (28%), presidential candidates such as Ciro Gomez (PDT, 8%), André Janones (Avante, 2%) and Simone Tebet (MDB) , 1%) are hoping that until October 2 there is a long way to go.
Ciro makes use of the analogy that votes that would fall into his lap are today lagged among the hesitant and unconvincing voters of the two leaders. He says the residents are in a “state of lethargy and fear,” but that they will wake up.
In the same context, Janonis says that the vote will be decided in the final stage, and that this will raise the search for options. The federal representative of Minas Gerais asserts that people are hostages of the duty of having to choose the least the worst, but that will change.
Tibet was trying to anchor himself with a message of hope and calm. It was selected as a consensus candidate for the poor third way, and is unknown by 77% of the population. The challenge is to get up in the polls and be seen as a viable alternative.
Strategists in these campaigns make several arguments to support the idea that there is nothing to guarantee that Lula will be able to run in the first round or necessarily compete with Bolsonaro in the second round. This, of course, ignored the danger of an electoral coup by the incumbent president.
The free advertising on radio and television (which will run from August 26 to September 29), voter fatigue with the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro, the belated wake-up of voters for elections and the existence of choices are cited. as possible turning points.
There are still those who bet on the massive rejection of Bolsonaro and Lola (today 55% and 35% respectively) as a catalyst for the transformation. All assumptions are questioned by experts.
“The surveys indicate that there is a feeling that there will be competition between the two and that it will be necessary to keep one of them,” Carolina says.
According to her, the widespread use of social networks, bolstered by polisnarism, promotes a lasting campaign climate, unlike in the past. The new reality tends to weaken the importance of mandatory advertising in traditional media.
Predictions about the stability of the scenario are also based on the anticipation of the electoral debate – first by delegating the president, then rehabilitating a Labor member – and on the unprecedented animosity between charismatic politicians who have already held office. It can be evaluated empirically.
“Something other than a confrontation between Lula and Bolsonaro seems to me more and more unlikely,” says Humberto Dantas, coordinator of the graduate program in political science at Fundação Escola de Sociologia e Política de São Paulo. “With what we have today, there is little room for another phenomenon.”
For the researcher, the picture is nothing more than a reflection of national politics in recent years, in which the force of gravity prevailed for both. The center-right’s failure to manufacture a strong alternative has something to do with this.
At the same time from the 2018 and 2014 elections, voting intentions were more dispersed among the major candidates, which means there is a greater potential for ups and downs and overruns.
In the race four years ago, with an element still in sight capable of tampering with the situation, Lula, who was then arrested and banned from running, exchanged for Fernando Haddad for a PT ticket.
The wave of outsiders and political renewal, seized by Bolsonaro, has since subsided, as evidenced by the 2020 municipal elections, dictated by credentials such as administrative expertise.
That makes analysts discourage comparisons with the transformation of victorious rulers in 2018, such as Romeo Zima (Novo-MG) and Wilson Wetzel (PSC-RJ), who have been dragged down by Paulsonian turmoil. Understandably, the reality is different now, both at the state and at the federal level.
The set of peculiarities leads to the assessment that the official campaign period hardly has the potential to undermine Lula and Bolsonaro’s permanence at the fore. However, differences in their proportions are not excluded due to the expected attacks from both sides.
“If Bolsonaro is able to produce a miracle, he will have a chance of victory. Otherwise, he will face many difficulties and will have to rely on luck,” says sociologist and political scientist Antonio Lavarida, of the Ipespe Research Institute.
He notes that history shows that presidential candidates who turned the tables benefited from trump cards (as was the case with Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Real Blanc in 1994), godparents (supporting Dilma Rousseff and Lula in 2010) or exceptions (Bolsonaro’s attack) that he highlighted ).
In the fight to stay in the presidency until 2026, the CEO is resorting to electoral measures to try to mitigate the consequences of the economic crisis, which is more than just a central agenda in this election. The big question is whether gestures have a short-term effect on voting.
For analysts, Bolsonaro’s position is critical because of this bias, but it is a bit comforting if one considers the fact that he has a 25%-30% level of voting intent and is not threatened by being displaced from second place by other contenders.
Variations in the presidential race
What was posted today?
- Brings Lula and Bolsonaro together 75% of voting intentions in the first roundWhile Ciro Gomez is in third place with 8%, according to Datafolha
- up lola 37% in spontaneous search And it jumps to 47% in the catalyst (when applicant names are submitted). Bolsonaro goes from 25% to 28%
- 70% of voters say they already I decided completely About their vote, according to Datafolha. The percentage is higher between voters of Lula and Bolsonaro (80%)
- With firm voting intentions even with back-to-back setbacks, Bolsonaro has 55% refused Who won’t vote for him at all, flat rate since March
What can change
- 27% of voters in the spontaneous poll say You don’t know who to vote forIt drops to 4% in the alert period. Nulls and blanks are 7%. For 29%, their current choice may change
- Ciro and Tebet campaigns bet on that Official campaign periodThat will last a month and a half, starting on August 16, to impress the undecided and attract more voters
- Project opponents Voter fatigue with polarization Between Lula and Bolsonaro, which would lead to a search for other options, but both offer secure bases so far.
- Tibet and Janones Knowledge by 23% and 25% respectively of voters and they expect to raise these rates to increase their voting intentions.
- Leave the voting decision for last hour It’s been a common occurrence in recent years, but analysts say the scenario has crystallized early this time, favoring a beneficial vote.
Doubts hovering
- Bolsonaro will be able to breathe with Electoral procedures To try to lower fuel prices and increase Auxílio Brasil from R$400 to R$600?
- Alternate candidates will grab the voter’s attention and boost their scores Just over a month From the official campaign and schedule on TV and radio?
- Candidates such as Ciro, Tibet and Jannes will tempt voters and A rise in opinion polls To the point of avoiding Lula’s victory in the first round or removing Bolsonaro from the second?
- some Surprise Could it spoil the scenario, be it a change in the list of competitors, a change in the mood of the voters or some other event in some unfathomable field?
- So will the official campaign, in which candidates praise their virtues and attack their opponents Significant impact Lula and Bolsonaro offers?